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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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IFK Norrkoping cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over IFK Varnamo.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

IFK Norrkoping beat IFK Varnamo 1-3 at Finnvedsvallen, Regular Season - 6, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Varnamo 1.37 xG and IFK Norrkoping 1.43 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. IFK Norrkoping outscored their 1.43 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Varnamo attack 0.77 / defence 1.10 against IFK Norrkoping attack 1.04 / defence 1.24, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it IFK Varnamo 36% | Draw 25% | IFK Norrkoping 39%, with IFK Norrkoping to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Varnamo 45%, IFK Norrkoping 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

IFK Varnamo's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

IFK Norrkoping's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — IFK Varnamo 1.28 PPG, IFK Norrkoping 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IFK Norrkoping win broke the near-deadlock. IFK Varnamo (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IFK Norrkoping (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.37 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights