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Shock result as IFK Goteborg defy the odds to beat IFK Varnamo 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

IFK Goteborg beat IFK Varnamo 0-1 at Finnvedsvallen, Regular Season - 3, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Varnamo 1.57 xG and IFK Goteborg 1.20 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. IFK Varnamo fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Varnamo attack 0.91 / defence 1.09 against IFK Goteborg attack 0.86 / defence 1.26, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it IFK Varnamo 46% | Draw 25% | IFK Goteborg 29%, with IFK Varnamo to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual IFK Goteborg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Varnamo 45%, IFK Goteborg 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

IFK Varnamo's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

IFK Goteborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — IFK Varnamo 1.28 PPG, IFK Goteborg 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IFK Goteborg win broke the near-deadlock. IFK Varnamo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights