🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Stalemate at IFK Varnamo's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Finnvedsvallen, Regular Season - 13, as IFK Varnamo and IF Elfsborg drew 0-0 in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Varnamo 1.06 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.61 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. IFK Varnamo fell 1.1 short of their projected output. IF Elfsborg landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Varnamo attack 0.86 / defence 1.17 against IF Elfsborg attack 1.04 / defence 0.91, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it IFK Varnamo 25% | Draw 25% | IF Elfsborg 50%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Varnamo 45%, IF Elfsborg 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

IFK Varnamo's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

IF Elfsborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, IF Elfsborg arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.28. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. IFK Varnamo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights