IFK Varnamo 1-0 IF Elfsborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours IF Elfsborg (56%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as IFK Varnamo face IF Elfsborg.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees IF Elfsborg travel to Finnvedsvallen to take on IFK Varnamo. The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 September 2023, 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, IFK Varnamo stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for IFK Varnamo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, IFK Varnamo have posted 3W 1D 6L at Finnvedsvallen — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
IF Elfsborg — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for IF Elfsborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IF Elfsborg's form when playing away from home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. IF Elfsborg are 0.80 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for IFK Varnamo, 2 for IF Elfsborg and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 14 May 2023, ended 0–2 with IF Elfsborg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
IFK Varnamo in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
IF Elfsborg in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Varnamo 49% versus IF Elfsborg 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Varnamo 47% | IF Elfsborg 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Varnamo 0.71 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Varnamo attack 0.611 / defence 0.905 | IF Elfsborg attack 1.341 / defence 0.793. League average goals — home 1.468 / away 1.239. IFK Varnamo's attack strength of 0.611 is below the league average — the 0.71 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. IF Elfsborg's defence strength of 0.793 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. IF Elfsborg have an above-average attack strength of 1.341 — the away xG of 1.50 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 51 IFK Varnamo games / 51 IF Elfsborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 18% | Draw 26% | IF Elfsborg 56%. Fair-value odds: IFK Varnamo 5.56 | Draw 3.85 | IF Elfsborg 1.79. The model has a clear lean to IF Elfsborg (56%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, IF Elfsborg are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.21 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: IFK Varnamo 30% | IF Elfsborg 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Varnamo vs IF Elfsborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Finnvedsvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Sep 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 18% | Draw 26% | IF Elfsborg 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 40% | xG IFK Varnamo 0.71 / IF Elfsborg 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Varnamo attack 0.611 / def 0.905 | IF Elfsborg attack 1.341 / def 0.793 | league avg home 1.468 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.71
IFK Varnamo xG
Expected Goals
1.50
IF Elfsborg xG
40%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Varnamo vs IF Elfsborg kick off?
IFK Varnamo vs IF Elfsborg kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 2 September 2023 at Finnvedsvallen.
What was the final score in IFK Varnamo vs IF Elfsborg?
IFK Varnamo 1 - 0 IF Elfsborg.
Where is IFK Varnamo vs IF Elfsborg being played?
The match is being played at Finnvedsvallen.
What competition is IFK Varnamo vs IF Elfsborg part of?
IFK Varnamo vs IF Elfsborg is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Varnamo vs IF Elfsborg?
Our statistical model gives IFK Varnamo a 18% chance of winning, IF Elfsborg a 56% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Varnamo vs IF Elfsborg?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both IFK Varnamo and IF Elfsborg will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Varnamo vs IF Elfsborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and IF Elfsborg?
Record (3 meetings): IFK Varnamo 0W | Draws 1 | IF Elfsborg 2W.
What form are IFK Varnamo and IF Elfsborg in?
IFK Varnamo (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. IF Elfsborg (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from IFK Varnamo's attack rating (0.61) and IF Elfsborg's defence rating (0.79), the model arrives at 0.71 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, IF Elfsborg's attack versus IFK Varnamo's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.2%), 0-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
18%
5.70
26%
3.80
56%
1.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.3%
Away win
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.71
IFK Varnamo xG
Total xG
2.21
1.50
IF Elfsborg xG
5.70
18%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
1.78
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
22%
4.50
49%
2.04
Win to Nil
4%
25.64
28%
3.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 16.4 | 12.3 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.7 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Varnamo vs IF Elfsborg?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are IFK Varnamo and IF Elfsborg expected to score?
The model projects 0.71 expected goals for IFK Varnamo and 1.50 for IF Elfsborg, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Varnamo vs IF Elfsborg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
IFK Varnamo come into this having played 51 games, going 17W 12D 22L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-D. The sample for IFK Varnamo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, IF Elfsborg sit at 1.90 PPG from 51 outings (28W 13D 10L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for IF Elfsborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IF Elfsborg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.66 PPG clear of IFK Varnamo — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
IFK Varnamo's home form reads 8W 7D 10L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.24 PPG return.
Away from home, IF Elfsborg have taken 1.68 points per game from 25 outings (12W 6D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IF Elfsborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
IFK Varnamo are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; IF Elfsborg are on 1.98 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Varnamo
Blended
IF Elfsborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Varnamo and IF Elfsborg in coming into this match?
IFK Varnamo have gone 17W 12D 22L in their last 51 games (1.24 PPG), while IF Elfsborg have gone 28W 13D 10L in their last 51 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Varnamo at home or IF Elfsborg away?
IF Elfsborg's away record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Varnamo at home: 1.24 PPG; IF Elfsborg away: 1.68 PPG.
Have IFK Varnamo or IF Elfsborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Varnamo have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, IF Elfsborg in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between IFK Varnamo and IF Elfsborg runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 11 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 4 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Apr 2022, when IF Elfsborg won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IFK Varnamo's record when hosting IF Elfsborg specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
IFK Varnamo
5
Draws
2
IF Elfsborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and IF Elfsborg?
From 8 meetings on record, IFK Varnamo have won 1, IF Elfsborg have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did IFK Varnamo and IF Elfsborg last play each other?
They last met on 11 August 2025, when IF Elfsborg 2-2 IFK Varnamo.
Who has won more matches between IFK Varnamo and IF Elfsborg?
IF Elfsborg have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
IFK Varnamo see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Varnamo 48%, IF Elfsborg 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (IFK Varnamo) and 52% (IF Elfsborg).
On the defensive side: IFK Varnamo keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; IF Elfsborg in 32%; IFK Varnamo have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Varnamo home games / IF Elfsborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Varnamo play IF Elfsborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of IFK Varnamo's recent matches and 48% of IF Elfsborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IFK Varnamo vs IF Elfsborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of IFK Varnamo's recent games and 52% of IF Elfsborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Varnamo and IF Elfsborg tend to score early?
IFK Varnamo have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, IF Elfsborg in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as IFK Varnamo defy the odds to beat IF Elfsborg 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Varnamo beat IF Elfsborg 1-0 at Finnvedsvallen, Regular Season - 22, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Varnamo 0.71 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.50 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. IF Elfsborg landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Varnamo attack 0.61 / defence 0.91 against IF Elfsborg attack 1.34 / defence 0.79, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Varnamo 18% | Draw 26% | IF Elfsborg 56%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a IFK Varnamo win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Varnamo 47%, IF Elfsborg 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Varnamo's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, IF Elfsborg arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.24. Form was overturned, with IFK Varnamo winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. IFK Varnamo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.68 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.