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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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IFK Varnamo and IF Brommapojkarna share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

IFK Varnamo and IF Brommapojkarna finished level at 1-1 at Finnvedsvallen, Regular Season - 27, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Varnamo 1.20 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.77 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Varnamo attack 0.93 / defence 1.34 against IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.97 / defence 0.86, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it IFK Varnamo 26% | Draw 24% | IF Brommapojkarna 51%, with IF Brommapojkarna to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Varnamo 48%, IF Brommapojkarna 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

IFK Varnamo's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

IF Brommapojkarna's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — IFK Varnamo 0.88 PPG, IF Brommapojkarna 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights