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Prediction vindicated as Hammarby FF edge out IFK Varnamo 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hammarby FF beat IFK Varnamo 2-3 at Finnvedsvallen, Regular Season - 17, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Varnamo 0.99 xG and Hammarby FF 1.36 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. IFK Varnamo beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hammarby FF outscored their 1.36 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Varnamo attack 0.81 / defence 0.96 against Hammarby FF attack 1.15 / defence 0.89, drawn from 46/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it IFK Varnamo 27% | Draw 27% | Hammarby FF 46%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Varnamo 40%, Hammarby FF 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

IFK Varnamo's trading profile (47 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Hammarby FF's trading profile (47 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Hammarby FF arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 0.87. Form held, and they took the win. IFK Varnamo (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights