IFK Varnamo 0-3 Hammarby FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hammarby FF at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IFK Varnamo vs Hammarby FF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Finnvedsvallen plays host to IFK Varnamo versus Hammarby FF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Saturday 17 August 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
IFK Varnamo have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for IFK Varnamo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IFK Varnamo's form when playing at home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 games at Finnvedsvallen this term (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.60 lags behind their overall 1.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Finnvedsvallen this season.
Hammarby FF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: L W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Hammarby FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Hammarby FF have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Hammarby FF are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Across 5 previous meetings, IFK Varnamo are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 0, with 1 draws in between.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 5 previous contests averaged 1.8 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 May 2024, ended 2–1 with IFK Varnamo winning.
The historical record gives IFK Varnamo a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading
IFK Varnamo half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Hammarby FF half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Varnamo 44% versus Hammarby FF 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Varnamo 48% | Hammarby FF 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Varnamo 1.09 xG and Hammarby FF 2.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Varnamo attack 0.864 / defence 1.327 | Hammarby FF attack 1.126 / defence 0.758. League average goals — home 1.658 / away 1.360. Hammarby FF's defence strength of 0.758 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 48 IFK Varnamo games / 48 Hammarby FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 20% | Draw 21% | Hammarby FF 59%. Fair-value odds: IFK Varnamo 5.00 | Draw 4.76 | Hammarby FF 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Hammarby FF (59%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
IFK Varnamo dominate the H2H record, yet Hammarby FF are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Hammarby FF as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.12 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: IFK Varnamo 60% | Hammarby FF 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Varnamo vs Hammarby FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Finnvedsvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Aug 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 20% | Draw 21% | Hammarby FF 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 58% | xG IFK Varnamo 1.09 / Hammarby FF 2.03 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Varnamo attack 0.864 / def 1.327 | Hammarby FF attack 1.126 / def 0.758 | league avg home 1.658 / away 1.360 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
IFK Varnamo xG
Expected Goals
2.03
Hammarby FF xG
58%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Varnamo vs Hammarby FF kick off?
IFK Varnamo vs Hammarby FF kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 17 August 2024 at Finnvedsvallen.
What was the final score in IFK Varnamo vs Hammarby FF?
IFK Varnamo 0 - 3 Hammarby FF.
Where is IFK Varnamo vs Hammarby FF being played?
The match is being played at Finnvedsvallen.
What competition is IFK Varnamo vs Hammarby FF part of?
IFK Varnamo vs Hammarby FF is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Varnamo vs Hammarby FF?
Our statistical model gives IFK Varnamo a 20% chance of winning, Hammarby FF a 59% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Varnamo vs Hammarby FF?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both IFK Varnamo and Hammarby FF will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Varnamo vs Hammarby FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and Hammarby FF?
Record (5 meetings): IFK Varnamo 4W | Draws 1 | Hammarby FF 0W.
What form are IFK Varnamo and Hammarby FF in?
IFK Varnamo (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Hammarby FF (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from IFK Varnamo's attack rating (0.86) and Hammarby FF's defence rating (0.76), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Hammarby FF's attack (1.13x) against IFK Varnamo's defence (1.33x) — and the away total comes out at 2.03.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
20%
5.08
21%
4.74
59%
1.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
0 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
IFK Varnamo xG
Total xG
3.12
2.03
Hammarby FF xG
5.08
20%
Home win
4.74
21%
Draw
1.69
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
13%
7.64
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
3%
38.83
20%
5.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 9.0 | 9.1 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Varnamo vs Hammarby FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are IFK Varnamo and Hammarby FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for IFK Varnamo and 2.03 for Hammarby FF, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Varnamo vs Hammarby FF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 48 outings, IFK Varnamo have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 19W 7D 22L record — L-D-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for IFK Varnamo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hammarby FF's form line: 21W 13D 14L from 48 games, 1.58 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-D. The sample for Hammarby FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for IFK Varnamo against 1.58 for Hammarby FF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, IFK Varnamo have posted 1.04 PPG from 24 outings (7W 4D 13L).
On the road, Hammarby FF have gone 7W 7D 10L from 24 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.58 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hammarby FF's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
IFK Varnamo are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Hammarby FF are on 1.54 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Varnamo
Blended
Hammarby FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Varnamo and Hammarby FF in coming into this match?
IFK Varnamo have gone 19W 7D 22L in their last 48 games (1.33 PPG), while Hammarby FF have gone 21W 13D 14L in their last 48 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Varnamo at home or Hammarby FF away?
Hammarby FF's away record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Varnamo at home: 1.04 PPG; Hammarby FF away: 1.17 PPG.
Have IFK Varnamo or Hammarby FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Varnamo have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Hammarby FF in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 27 July 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Hammarby FF go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hammarby FF won 0-3 on 17 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IFK Varnamo have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Hammarby FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
IFK Varnamo
1
Draws
3
Hammarby FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and Hammarby FF?
From 8 meetings on record, IFK Varnamo have won 4, Hammarby FF have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IFK Varnamo and Hammarby FF last play each other?
They last met on 27 July 2025, when IFK Varnamo 2-3 Hammarby FF.
Who has won more matches between IFK Varnamo and Hammarby FF?
IFK Varnamo have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
IFK Varnamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Hammarby FF see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Varnamo 46%, Hammarby FF 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (IFK Varnamo) and 46% (Hammarby FF).
On the defensive side: Hammarby FF in 38%; IFK Varnamo have failed to score in 38% of games; Hammarby FF in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Varnamo home games / Hammarby FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Varnamo play Hammarby FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of IFK Varnamo's recent matches and 38% of Hammarby FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IFK Varnamo vs Hammarby FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of IFK Varnamo's recent games and 46% of Hammarby FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Varnamo and Hammarby FF tend to score early?
IFK Varnamo have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Hammarby FF in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hammarby FF run riot with a 0-3 hammering of IFK Varnamo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hammarby FF beat IFK Varnamo 0-3 at Finnvedsvallen, Regular Season - 19, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Varnamo 1.09 xG and Hammarby FF 2.03 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. IFK Varnamo fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Hammarby FF outscored their 2.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Varnamo attack 0.86 / defence 1.33 against Hammarby FF attack 1.13 / defence 0.76, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Varnamo 20% | Draw 21% | Hammarby FF 59%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Varnamo 48%, Hammarby FF 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Varnamo's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hammarby FF's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IFK Varnamo 1.33 PPG, Hammarby FF 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hammarby FF win broke the near-deadlock. IFK Varnamo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.