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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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IFK Varnamo and Gais share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Finnvedsvallen, Regular Season - 18, as IFK Varnamo and Gais drew 2-2 in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Varnamo 0.93 xG and Gais 1.59 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. IFK Varnamo beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Varnamo attack 0.86 / defence 1.05 against Gais attack 1.15 / defence 0.74, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it IFK Varnamo 22% | Draw 25% | Gais 53%, with Gais to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Varnamo 40%, Gais 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

IFK Varnamo's trading profile (47 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Gais's trading profile (47 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Gais arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 0.87. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. IFK Varnamo (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights