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Prediction vindicated as IFK Varnamo edge out Djurgardens IF 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

IFK Varnamo beat Djurgardens IF 1-0 at Finnvedsvallen, Regular Season - 15, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Varnamo 1.06 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.03 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Djurgardens IF landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Varnamo attack 0.78 / defence 1.07 against Djurgardens IF attack 0.77 / defence 0.98, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it IFK Varnamo 36% | Draw 31% | Djurgardens IF 34%, with IFK Varnamo to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Varnamo 39%, Djurgardens IF 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

IFK Varnamo's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.

Djurgardens IF's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Djurgardens IF arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 0.86. Form was overturned, with IFK Varnamo winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. IFK Varnamo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights