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Prediction vindicated as IFK Varnamo edge out Degerfors IF 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

IFK Varnamo beat Degerfors IF 3-2 at Finnvedsvallen, Regular Season - 20, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Varnamo 2.13 xG and Degerfors IF 1.21 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. IFK Varnamo beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Varnamo attack 0.99 / defence 1.05 against Degerfors IF attack 0.84 / defence 1.59, drawn from 49/19 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it IFK Varnamo 58% | Draw 21% | Degerfors IF 20%, with IFK Varnamo to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Varnamo 43%, Degerfors IF 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

IFK Varnamo's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Degerfors IF's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Degerfors IF arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.88. Form was overturned, with IFK Varnamo winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. IFK Varnamo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights