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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant BK Hacken run riot with a 1-5 hammering of IFK Varnamo.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

BK Hacken beat IFK Varnamo 1-5 at Finnvedsvallen, Regular Season - 21, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Varnamo 1.17 xG and BK Hacken 1.11 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. BK Hacken outscored their 1.11 projection by 3.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Varnamo attack 1.02 / defence 1.11 against BK Hacken attack 0.74 / defence 0.82, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it IFK Varnamo 37% | Draw 29% | BK Hacken 34%, with IFK Varnamo to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual BK Hacken win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Varnamo 44%, BK Hacken 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

IFK Varnamo's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

BK Hacken's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — IFK Varnamo 0.92 PPG, BK Hacken 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the BK Hacken win broke the near-deadlock. IFK Varnamo (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. BK Hacken (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights