IFK Varnamo 0-1 AIK Stockholm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours AIK Stockholm (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as IFK Varnamo face AIK Stockholm.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
AIK Stockholm make the trip to Finnvedsvallen to face IFK Varnamo in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Saturday 31 August 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
IFK Varnamo have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for IFK Varnamo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IFK Varnamo at Finnvedsvallen this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 home games — 0.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
AIK Stockholm (all games): 6W 0D 4L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for AIK Stockholm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AIK Stockholm away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, AIK Stockholm are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — IFK Varnamo have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, AIK Stockholm in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: IFK Varnamo 1W, AIK Stockholm 3W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 24 Apr 2024, ended 0–2 with AIK Stockholm winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
IFK Varnamo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
AIK Stockholm goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Varnamo 44% versus AIK Stockholm 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Varnamo 48% | AIK Stockholm 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Varnamo 1.49 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Varnamo attack 0.816 / defence 1.374 | AIK Stockholm attack 1.008 / defence 1.170. League average goals — home 1.562 / away 1.358. Data: 50 IFK Varnamo games / 50 AIK Stockholm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 31% | Draw 22% | AIK Stockholm 47%. Fair-value odds: IFK Varnamo 3.23 | Draw 4.55 | AIK Stockholm 2.13. AIK Stockholm hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.49 / 1.88) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates AIK Stockholm as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AIK Stockholm if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.37 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: IFK Varnamo 60% | AIK Stockholm 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Varnamo vs AIK Stockholm | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Finnvedsvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Aug 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 31% | Draw 22% | AIK Stockholm 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 66% | xG IFK Varnamo 1.49 / AIK Stockholm 1.88 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Varnamo attack 0.816 / def 1.374 | AIK Stockholm attack 1.008 / def 1.170 | league avg home 1.562 / away 1.358 • Poisson stance: AIK Stockholm (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
IFK Varnamo xG
Expected Goals
1.88
AIK Stockholm xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Varnamo vs AIK Stockholm kick off?
IFK Varnamo vs AIK Stockholm kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 31 August 2024 at Finnvedsvallen.
What was the final score in IFK Varnamo vs AIK Stockholm?
IFK Varnamo 0 - 1 AIK Stockholm.
Where is IFK Varnamo vs AIK Stockholm being played?
The match is being played at Finnvedsvallen.
What competition is IFK Varnamo vs AIK Stockholm part of?
IFK Varnamo vs AIK Stockholm is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Varnamo vs AIK Stockholm?
Our statistical model gives IFK Varnamo a 31% chance of winning, AIK Stockholm a 47% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making AIK Stockholm the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Varnamo vs AIK Stockholm?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both IFK Varnamo and AIK Stockholm will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Varnamo vs AIK Stockholm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and AIK Stockholm?
Record (5 meetings): IFK Varnamo 1W | Draws 1 | AIK Stockholm 3W.
What form are IFK Varnamo and AIK Stockholm in?
IFK Varnamo (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. AIK Stockholm (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from IFK Varnamo's attack rating (0.82) and AIK Stockholm's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.49 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — AIK Stockholm's attack (1.01x) against IFK Varnamo's defence (1.37x) — and the away total comes out at 1.88.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AIK Stockholm Win
31%
3.25
22%
4.48
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
2 – 1
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
IFK Varnamo xG
Total xG
3.37
1.88
AIK Stockholm xG
3.25
31%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.91
Clean Sheet
15%
6.57
23%
4.44
Win to Nil
5%
21.35
11%
9.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 6.5 | 6.1 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 9.6 | 9.1 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 7.2 | 6.7 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Varnamo vs AIK Stockholm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are IFK Varnamo and AIK Stockholm expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for IFK Varnamo and 1.88 for AIK Stockholm, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Varnamo vs AIK Stockholm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
IFK Varnamo's recent record stands at 19W 8D 23L from 50 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for IFK Varnamo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AIK Stockholm, meanwhile, have gone 19W 11D 20L across 50 games — 1.36 PPG, with L-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for AIK Stockholm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for IFK Varnamo against 1.36 for AIK Stockholm. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, IFK Varnamo have managed 7W 4D 14L from 25 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AIK Stockholm's away record stands at 6W 5D 14L across 25 trips, a 0.92 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.36 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of AIK Stockholm's season.
Attack vs Defence
IFK Varnamo are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; AIK Stockholm are on 1.34 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Varnamo
Blended
AIK Stockholm
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Varnamo and AIK Stockholm in coming into this match?
IFK Varnamo have gone 19W 8D 23L in their last 50 games (1.30 PPG), while AIK Stockholm have gone 19W 11D 20L in their last 50 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Varnamo at home or AIK Stockholm away?
IFK Varnamo's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Varnamo at home: 1.00 PPG; AIK Stockholm away: 0.92 PPG.
Have IFK Varnamo or AIK Stockholm been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Varnamo have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, AIK Stockholm in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 5 October 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IFK Varnamo have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against AIK Stockholm — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
IFK Varnamo
1
Draws
5
AIK Stockholm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and AIK Stockholm?
From 8 meetings on record, IFK Varnamo have won 2, AIK Stockholm have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IFK Varnamo and AIK Stockholm last play each other?
They last met on 5 October 2025, when AIK Stockholm 2-3 IFK Varnamo.
Who has won more matches between IFK Varnamo and AIK Stockholm?
AIK Stockholm have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
IFK Varnamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
AIK Stockholm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Varnamo 44%, AIK Stockholm 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (IFK Varnamo) and 56% (AIK Stockholm).
On the defensive side: IFK Varnamo have failed to score in 40% of games; AIK Stockholm in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Varnamo home games / AIK Stockholm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Varnamo play AIK Stockholm?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of IFK Varnamo's recent matches and 60% of AIK Stockholm's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IFK Varnamo vs AIK Stockholm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of IFK Varnamo's recent games and 56% of AIK Stockholm's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Varnamo and AIK Stockholm tend to score early?
IFK Varnamo have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, AIK Stockholm in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AIK Stockholm edge out IFK Varnamo 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AIK Stockholm beat IFK Varnamo 0-1 at Finnvedsvallen, Regular Season - 21, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Varnamo 1.49 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.88 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. IFK Varnamo fell 1.5 short of their projected output. AIK Stockholm landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Varnamo attack 0.82 / defence 1.37 against AIK Stockholm attack 1.01 / defence 1.17, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Varnamo 31% | Draw 22% | AIK Stockholm 47%, with AIK Stockholm to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Varnamo 48%, AIK Stockholm 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Varnamo's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IFK Varnamo 1.30 PPG, AIK Stockholm 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AIK Stockholm win broke the near-deadlock. IFK Varnamo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.