IFK Norrkoping 2-1 Vasteras SK FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IFK Norrkoping at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this IFK Norrkoping vs Vasteras SK FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Vasteras SK FK travel to PlatinumCars Arena to take on IFK Norrkoping. The game is scheduled for Saturday 10 August 2024, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, IFK Norrkoping stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for IFK Norrkoping, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IFK Norrkoping's form when playing at home: 5W 0D 5L across 10 games at PlatinumCars Arena this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — IFK Norrkoping are significantly better at PlatinumCars Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Vasteras SK FK have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Vasteras SK FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Vasteras SK FK have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: IFK Norrkoping 1.00 PPG, Vasteras SK FK 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for IFK Norrkoping, 1 for Vasteras SK FK and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Jul 2024, ended 1–2 with Vasteras SK FK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
IFK Norrkoping trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Vasteras SK FK trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Norrkoping 62% versus Vasteras SK FK 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Norrkoping 64% | Vasteras SK FK 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Norrkoping 1.47 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Norrkoping attack 0.875 / defence 1.096 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.682 / defence 1.005. League average goals — home 1.675 / away 1.385. Data: 47 IFK Norrkoping games / 17 Vasteras SK FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Norrkoping 47% | Draw 26% | Vasteras SK FK 27%. Fair-value odds: IFK Norrkoping 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | Vasteras SK FK 3.70. IFK Norrkoping hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, IFK Norrkoping are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IFK Norrkoping offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates corroborate: IFK Norrkoping 50% | Vasteras SK FK 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Norrkoping vs Vasteras SK FK | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: PlatinumCars Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Aug 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Norrkoping 47% | Draw 26% | Vasteras SK FK 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG IFK Norrkoping 1.47 / Vasteras SK FK 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Norrkoping attack 0.875 / def 1.096 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.682 / def 1.005 | league avg home 1.675 / away 1.385 • Poisson stance: IFK Norrkoping (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
IFK Norrkoping xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Vasteras SK FK xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Norrkoping vs Vasteras SK FK kick off?
IFK Norrkoping vs Vasteras SK FK kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 10 August 2024 at PlatinumCars Arena.
What was the final score in IFK Norrkoping vs Vasteras SK FK?
IFK Norrkoping 2 - 1 Vasteras SK FK.
Where is IFK Norrkoping vs Vasteras SK FK being played?
The match is being played at PlatinumCars Arena.
What competition is IFK Norrkoping vs Vasteras SK FK part of?
IFK Norrkoping vs Vasteras SK FK is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Norrkoping vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our statistical model gives IFK Norrkoping a 47% chance of winning, Vasteras SK FK a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making IFK Norrkoping the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Norrkoping vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both IFK Norrkoping and Vasteras SK FK will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Norrkoping vs Vasteras SK FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Norrkoping and Vasteras SK FK?
Record (1 meetings): IFK Norrkoping 0W | Draws 0 | Vasteras SK FK 1W.
What form are IFK Norrkoping and Vasteras SK FK in?
IFK Norrkoping (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Vasteras SK FK (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates IFK Norrkoping's attack at 0.88x the league average against Vasteras SK FK's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Vasteras SK FK's attack versus IFK Norrkoping's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Norrkoping Win
47%
2.12
26%
3.82
27%
3.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
IFK Norrkoping xG
Total xG
2.51
1.03
Vasteras SK FK xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
3.77
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
23%
4.36
Win to Nil
17%
5.95
6%
16.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 8.4 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.4 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Norrkoping vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are IFK Norrkoping and Vasteras SK FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for IFK Norrkoping and 1.03 for Vasteras SK FK, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Norrkoping vs Vasteras SK FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 47 outings, IFK Norrkoping have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 18W 7D 22L record — L-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for IFK Norrkoping is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vasteras SK FK's form line: 22W 9D 16L from 47 games, 1.60 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-L. The sample for Vasteras SK FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: IFK Norrkoping on 1.30 PPG, Vasteras SK FK on 1.60. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, IFK Norrkoping have posted 1.52 PPG from 23 outings (11W 2D 10L).
On the road, Vasteras SK FK have gone 10W 4D 9L from 23 away games — 1.48 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
IFK Norrkoping are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Vasteras SK FK are on 1.30 scored and 1.02 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IFK Norrkoping have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Vasteras SK FK in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Norrkoping
Blended
Vasteras SK FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Norrkoping and Vasteras SK FK in coming into this match?
IFK Norrkoping have gone 18W 7D 22L in their last 47 games (1.30 PPG), while Vasteras SK FK have gone 22W 9D 16L in their last 47 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Norrkoping at home or Vasteras SK FK away?
IFK Norrkoping's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Norrkoping at home: 1.52 PPG; Vasteras SK FK away: 1.48 PPG.
Have IFK Norrkoping or Vasteras SK FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Norrkoping have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Vasteras SK FK in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 August 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
IFK Norrkoping
0
Draws
1
Vasteras SK FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Norrkoping and Vasteras SK FK?
From 2 meetings on record, IFK Norrkoping have won 1, Vasteras SK FK have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did IFK Norrkoping and Vasteras SK FK last play each other?
They last met on 10 August 2024, when IFK Norrkoping 2-1 Vasteras SK FK.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
IFK Norrkoping are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Vasteras SK FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Norrkoping 48%, Vasteras SK FK 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (IFK Norrkoping) and 52% (Vasteras SK FK).
On the defensive side: IFK Norrkoping keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Vasteras SK FK in 30%; Vasteras SK FK in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Norrkoping home games / Vasteras SK FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Norrkoping play Vasteras SK FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of IFK Norrkoping's recent matches and 44% of Vasteras SK FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IFK Norrkoping vs Vasteras SK FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of IFK Norrkoping's recent games and 52% of Vasteras SK FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Norrkoping and Vasteras SK FK tend to score early?
IFK Norrkoping have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Vasteras SK FK in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as IFK Norrkoping edge out Vasteras SK FK 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Norrkoping beat Vasteras SK FK 2-1 at PlatinumCars Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Norrkoping 1.47 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.03 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Norrkoping attack 0.88 / defence 1.10 against Vasteras SK FK attack 0.68 / defence 1.00, drawn from 47/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Norrkoping 47% | Draw 26% | Vasteras SK FK 27%, with IFK Norrkoping to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Norrkoping 64%, Vasteras SK FK 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Norrkoping's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IFK Norrkoping 1.30 PPG, Vasteras SK FK 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IFK Norrkoping win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.