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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as IFK Norrkoping edge out Osters IF 4-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

IFK Norrkoping beat Osters IF 4-3 at Platinumcars Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Norrkoping 1.66 xG and Osters IF 0.97 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. IFK Norrkoping beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Osters IF outscored their 0.97 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Norrkoping attack 0.93 / defence 1.06 against Osters IF attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 30/0 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it IFK Norrkoping 54% | Draw 24% | Osters IF 22%, with IFK Norrkoping to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Norrkoping 60%, Osters IF 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

IFK Norrkoping's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Osters IF's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Osters IF arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.13. Form was overturned, with IFK Norrkoping winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. IFK Norrkoping (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Osters IF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights