IFK Norrkoping 1-1 Mjallby AIF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IFK Norrkoping at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IFK Norrkoping vs Mjallby AIF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Östgötaporten plays host to IFK Norrkoping versus Mjallby AIF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Monday 3 August 2020 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
IFK Norrkoping have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: D W L W D. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for IFK Norrkoping, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, IFK Norrkoping have posted 5W 1D 0L at Östgötaporten — 2.67 PPG. They are averaging 2.17 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 clean sheets from 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Östgötaporten. Their home PPG of 2.67 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — IFK Norrkoping are significantly better at Östgötaporten than their overall form suggests.
Mjallby AIF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mjallby AIF's away record: 2W 1D 3L from 6 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.17 PPG). Away from home they average 0.83 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in IFK Norrkoping's favour (2.10 vs 1.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading
IFK Norrkoping half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 27% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Mjallby AIF half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Norrkoping 73% versus Mjallby AIF 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Norrkoping 64% | Mjallby AIF 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Norrkoping 1.82 xG and Mjallby AIF 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Norrkoping attack 1.296 / defence 0.814 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.709 / defence 1.276. League average goals — home 1.103 / away 1.209. IFK Norrkoping carry an above-average attack strength of 1.296 — their λ of 1.82 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Mjallby AIF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.276 — this is suppressing IFK Norrkoping's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 IFK Norrkoping games / 11 Mjallby AIF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Norrkoping 63% | Draw 24% | Mjallby AIF 13%. Fair-value odds: IFK Norrkoping 1.59 | Draw 4.17 | Mjallby AIF 7.69. The model has a clear lean to IFK Norrkoping (63%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates IFK Norrkoping as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: IFK Norrkoping 50% | Mjallby AIF 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Norrkoping vs Mjallby AIF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Östgötaporten • Kick-off: Monday 3 Aug 2020, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Norrkoping 63% | Draw 24% | Mjallby AIF 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 43% | xG IFK Norrkoping 1.82 / Mjallby AIF 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Norrkoping attack 1.296 / def 0.814 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.709 / def 1.276 | league avg home 1.103 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: IFK Norrkoping (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
IFK Norrkoping xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Mjallby AIF xG
43%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Norrkoping vs Mjallby AIF kick off?
IFK Norrkoping vs Mjallby AIF kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 3 August 2020 at Östgötaporten.
What was the final score in IFK Norrkoping vs Mjallby AIF?
IFK Norrkoping 1 - 1 Mjallby AIF.
Where is IFK Norrkoping vs Mjallby AIF being played?
The match is being played at Östgötaporten.
What competition is IFK Norrkoping vs Mjallby AIF part of?
IFK Norrkoping vs Mjallby AIF is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Norrkoping vs Mjallby AIF?
Our statistical model gives IFK Norrkoping a 63% chance of winning, Mjallby AIF a 13% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making IFK Norrkoping the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Norrkoping vs Mjallby AIF?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both IFK Norrkoping and Mjallby AIF will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Norrkoping vs Mjallby AIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Norrkoping and Mjallby AIF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are IFK Norrkoping and Mjallby AIF in?
IFK Norrkoping (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. Mjallby AIF (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
IFK Norrkoping's attacking strength (1.30x league average) is weighed against Mjallby AIF's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.82. Flip it around — Mjallby AIF's attack (0.71x) against IFK Norrkoping's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.70.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.3%), 1-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Norrkoping Win
63%
1.58
24%
4.16
13%
7.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.4%
Home win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
IFK Norrkoping xG
Total xG
2.52
0.70
Mjallby AIF xG
1.58
63%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
7.89
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
50%
2.01
16%
6.19
Win to Nil
31%
3.18
2%
48.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.7 | 10.2 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.4 | 9.3 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.1 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Norrkoping vs Mjallby AIF?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are IFK Norrkoping and Mjallby AIF expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for IFK Norrkoping and 0.70 for Mjallby AIF, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Norrkoping vs Mjallby AIF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
IFK Norrkoping come into this having played 11 games, going 7W 3D 1L for 2.18 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-D. The sample for IFK Norrkoping is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Mjallby AIF sit at 1.27 PPG from 11 outings (4W 2D 5L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IFK Norrkoping carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.91 PPG clear of Mjallby AIF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
IFK Norrkoping's home form reads 5W 1D 0L across 6 games on their own ground, a 2.67 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.18 PPG overall — IFK Norrkoping are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Mjallby AIF have taken 1.17 points per game from 6 outings (2W 1D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IFK Norrkoping come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
IFK Norrkoping are averaging 2.45 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Mjallby AIF are on 1.09 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IFK Norrkoping have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Last 11 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Norrkoping
Blended
Mjallby AIF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Norrkoping and Mjallby AIF in coming into this match?
IFK Norrkoping have gone 7W 3D 1L in their last 11 games (2.18 PPG), while Mjallby AIF have gone 4W 2D 5L in their last 11 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Norrkoping at home or Mjallby AIF away?
IFK Norrkoping's home record (2.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Norrkoping at home: 2.67 PPG; Mjallby AIF away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 26 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mjallby AIF won 3-0 on 6 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IFK Norrkoping have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Mjallby AIF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
IFK Norrkoping
4
Draws
4
Mjallby AIF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Norrkoping and Mjallby AIF?
From 10 meetings on record, IFK Norrkoping have won 2, Mjallby AIF have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did IFK Norrkoping and Mjallby AIF last play each other?
They last met on 26 October 2025, when Mjallby AIF 2-1 IFK Norrkoping.
Who has won more matches between IFK Norrkoping and Mjallby AIF?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
IFK Norrkoping are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Mjallby AIF see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Norrkoping 50%, Mjallby AIF 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (IFK Norrkoping) and 33% (Mjallby AIF).
On the defensive side: IFK Norrkoping keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Mjallby AIF in 33%; Mjallby AIF in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Norrkoping home games / Mjallby AIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Norrkoping play Mjallby AIF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of IFK Norrkoping's recent matches and 33% of Mjallby AIF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IFK Norrkoping vs Mjallby AIF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of IFK Norrkoping's recent games and 33% of Mjallby AIF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Norrkoping and Mjallby AIF tend to score early?
IFK Norrkoping have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Mjallby AIF in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IFK Norrkoping and Mjallby AIF share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Östgötaporten, Regular Season - 12, as IFK Norrkoping and Mjallby AIF drew 1-1 in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Norrkoping 1.82 xG and Mjallby AIF 0.70 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. IFK Norrkoping fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Norrkoping attack 1.30 / defence 0.81 against Mjallby AIF attack 0.71 / defence 1.28, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Norrkoping 63% | Draw 24% | Mjallby AIF 13%, with IFK Norrkoping to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Norrkoping 64%, Mjallby AIF 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Norrkoping's trading profile (11 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (11 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, IFK Norrkoping arrived the stronger side — 2.18 PPG against 1.27. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. IFK Norrkoping (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.17 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.