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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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IFK Norrkoping and Mjallby AIF share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Platinumcars Arena, Regular Season - 11, as IFK Norrkoping and Mjallby AIF drew 1-1 in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Norrkoping 1.24 xG and Mjallby AIF 2.33 xG, a combined 3.58. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Mjallby AIF landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Norrkoping attack 1.08 / defence 1.27 against Mjallby AIF attack 1.37 / defence 0.85, drawn from 40/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it IFK Norrkoping 19% | Draw 19% | Mjallby AIF 62%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Norrkoping 62%, Mjallby AIF 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

IFK Norrkoping's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Mjallby AIF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — IFK Norrkoping 1.25 PPG, Mjallby AIF 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights