IFK Norrkoping 1-2 Mjallby AIF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IFK Norrkoping at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this IFK Norrkoping vs Mjallby AIF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
PlatinumCars Arena plays host to IFK Norrkoping versus Mjallby AIF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Monday 26 August 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
IFK Norrkoping have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 4W 0D 6L. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for IFK Norrkoping, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, IFK Norrkoping have posted 6W 0D 4L at PlatinumCars Arena — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — IFK Norrkoping are significantly better at PlatinumCars Arena than their overall form suggests.
Mjallby AIF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mjallby AIF's away record: 4W 0D 6L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for IFK Norrkoping, 1.30 for Mjallby AIF — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — IFK Norrkoping have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Mjallby AIF in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: IFK Norrkoping 2W, Mjallby AIF 2W, 3D.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2024, ended 0–3 with Mjallby AIF winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
IFK Norrkoping half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Mjallby AIF half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Norrkoping 63% versus Mjallby AIF 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Norrkoping 65% | Mjallby AIF 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Norrkoping 1.52 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Norrkoping attack 0.930 / defence 1.108 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.792 / defence 1.016. League average goals — home 1.608 / away 1.359. Data: 49 IFK Norrkoping games / 49 Mjallby AIF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Norrkoping 45% | Draw 25% | Mjallby AIF 30%. Fair-value odds: IFK Norrkoping 2.22 | Draw 4.00 | Mjallby AIF 3.33. IFK Norrkoping hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates IFK Norrkoping as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IFK Norrkoping if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: IFK Norrkoping 60% | Mjallby AIF 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Norrkoping vs Mjallby AIF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: PlatinumCars Arena • Kick-off: Monday 26 Aug 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Norrkoping 45% | Draw 25% | Mjallby AIF 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG IFK Norrkoping 1.52 / Mjallby AIF 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Norrkoping attack 0.930 / def 1.108 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.792 / def 1.016 | league avg home 1.608 / away 1.359 • Poisson stance: IFK Norrkoping (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
IFK Norrkoping xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Mjallby AIF xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Norrkoping vs Mjallby AIF kick off?
IFK Norrkoping vs Mjallby AIF kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 26 August 2024 at PlatinumCars Arena.
What was the final score in IFK Norrkoping vs Mjallby AIF?
IFK Norrkoping 1 - 2 Mjallby AIF.
Where is IFK Norrkoping vs Mjallby AIF being played?
The match is being played at PlatinumCars Arena.
What competition is IFK Norrkoping vs Mjallby AIF part of?
IFK Norrkoping vs Mjallby AIF is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Norrkoping vs Mjallby AIF?
Our statistical model gives IFK Norrkoping a 45% chance of winning, Mjallby AIF a 30% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making IFK Norrkoping the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Norrkoping vs Mjallby AIF?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both IFK Norrkoping and Mjallby AIF will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Norrkoping vs Mjallby AIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Norrkoping and Mjallby AIF?
Record (7 meetings): IFK Norrkoping 2W | Draws 3 | Mjallby AIF 2W.
What form are IFK Norrkoping and Mjallby AIF in?
IFK Norrkoping (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Mjallby AIF (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
IFK Norrkoping's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Mjallby AIF's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. Flip it around — Mjallby AIF's attack (0.79x) against IFK Norrkoping's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Norrkoping Win
45%
2.23
25%
3.94
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
IFK Norrkoping xG
Total xG
2.71
1.19
Mjallby AIF xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
22%
4.57
Win to Nil
14%
7.36
7%
15.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.9 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.0 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.1 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Norrkoping vs Mjallby AIF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are IFK Norrkoping and Mjallby AIF expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for IFK Norrkoping and 1.19 for Mjallby AIF, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Norrkoping vs Mjallby AIF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
IFK Norrkoping come into this having played 49 games, going 19W 7D 23L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-L. The sample for IFK Norrkoping is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Mjallby AIF sit at 1.45 PPG from 49 outings (21W 8D 20L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for IFK Norrkoping against 1.45 for Mjallby AIF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
IFK Norrkoping's home form reads 12W 2D 10L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.58 PPG return.
Away from home, Mjallby AIF have taken 1.46 points per game from 24 outings (11W 2D 11L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
IFK Norrkoping are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Mjallby AIF are on 1.24 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IFK Norrkoping have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 49 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Norrkoping
Blended
Mjallby AIF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Norrkoping and Mjallby AIF in coming into this match?
IFK Norrkoping have gone 19W 7D 23L in their last 49 games (1.31 PPG), while Mjallby AIF have gone 21W 8D 20L in their last 49 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Norrkoping at home or Mjallby AIF away?
IFK Norrkoping's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Norrkoping at home: 1.58 PPG; Mjallby AIF away: 1.46 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 26 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mjallby AIF won 3-0 on 6 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IFK Norrkoping have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Mjallby AIF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
IFK Norrkoping
4
Draws
4
Mjallby AIF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Norrkoping and Mjallby AIF?
From 10 meetings on record, IFK Norrkoping have won 2, Mjallby AIF have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did IFK Norrkoping and Mjallby AIF last play each other?
They last met on 26 October 2025, when Mjallby AIF 2-1 IFK Norrkoping.
Who has won more matches between IFK Norrkoping and Mjallby AIF?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
IFK Norrkoping are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Mjallby AIF see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Norrkoping 50%, Mjallby AIF 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (IFK Norrkoping) and 46% (Mjallby AIF).
On the defensive side: Mjallby AIF in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Norrkoping home games / Mjallby AIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Norrkoping play Mjallby AIF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of IFK Norrkoping's recent matches and 38% of Mjallby AIF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IFK Norrkoping vs Mjallby AIF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of IFK Norrkoping's recent games and 46% of Mjallby AIF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Norrkoping and Mjallby AIF tend to score early?
IFK Norrkoping have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Mjallby AIF in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Mjallby AIF defy the odds to beat IFK Norrkoping 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjallby AIF beat IFK Norrkoping 1-2 at PlatinumCars Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Norrkoping 1.52 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.19 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Mjallby AIF outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Norrkoping attack 0.93 / defence 1.11 against Mjallby AIF attack 0.79 / defence 1.02, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Norrkoping 45% | Draw 25% | Mjallby AIF 30%, with IFK Norrkoping to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Mjallby AIF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Norrkoping 65%, Mjallby AIF 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Norrkoping's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IFK Norrkoping 1.31 PPG, Mjallby AIF 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mjallby AIF win broke the near-deadlock. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.