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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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IFK Norrkoping cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over IFK Varnamo.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

IFK Norrkoping beat IFK Varnamo 3-1 at Platinumcars Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Norrkoping 1.36 xG and IFK Varnamo 1.11 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. IFK Norrkoping beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Norrkoping attack 0.87 / defence 1.21 against IFK Varnamo attack 0.76 / defence 1.14, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it IFK Norrkoping 43% | Draw 27% | IFK Varnamo 30%, with IFK Norrkoping to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Norrkoping 60%, IFK Varnamo 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

IFK Norrkoping's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

IFK Varnamo's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — IFK Norrkoping 1.09 PPG, IFK Varnamo 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IFK Norrkoping win broke the near-deadlock. IFK Norrkoping (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm. IFK Varnamo (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights