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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as IFK Goteborg defy the odds to beat IFK Norrkoping 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

IFK Goteborg beat IFK Norrkoping 2-3 at Platinumcars Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Norrkoping 1.99 xG and IFK Goteborg 1.22 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. IFK Goteborg outscored their 1.22 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Norrkoping attack 1.32 / defence 1.11 against IFK Goteborg attack 0.87 / defence 1.07, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it IFK Norrkoping 55% | Draw 22% | IFK Goteborg 23%, with IFK Norrkoping to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a IFK Goteborg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Norrkoping 62%, IFK Goteborg 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

IFK Norrkoping's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

IFK Goteborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — IFK Norrkoping 1.25 PPG, IFK Goteborg 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IFK Goteborg win broke the near-deadlock. IFK Norrkoping (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights