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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as IFK Norrkoping defy the odds to beat IF Elfsborg 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

IFK Norrkoping beat IF Elfsborg 2-1 at Platinumcars Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Norrkoping 0.99 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.42 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. IFK Norrkoping beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Norrkoping attack 0.90 / defence 1.16 against IF Elfsborg attack 0.93 / defence 0.81, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it IFK Norrkoping 26% | Draw 27% | IF Elfsborg 47%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual IFK Norrkoping win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Norrkoping 59%, IF Elfsborg 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

IFK Norrkoping's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

IF Elfsborg's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, IF Elfsborg arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.08. Form was overturned, with IFK Norrkoping winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights