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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as IF Brommapojkarna edge out IFK Norrkoping 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

IF Brommapojkarna beat IFK Norrkoping 0-1 at Platinumcars Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Norrkoping 1.25 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.95 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. IFK Norrkoping fell 1.2 short of their projected output. IF Brommapojkarna landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Norrkoping attack 0.97 / defence 1.27 against IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.22 / defence 0.96, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it IFK Norrkoping 24% | Draw 23% | IF Brommapojkarna 53%, with IF Brommapojkarna to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Norrkoping 60%, IF Brommapojkarna 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

IFK Norrkoping's trading profile (43 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

IF Brommapojkarna's trading profile (43 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — IFK Norrkoping 1.14 PPG, IF Brommapojkarna 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IF Brommapojkarna win broke the near-deadlock. IFK Norrkoping (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line. IF Brommapojkarna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights