IFK Norrkoping 1-2 Hammarby FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IFK Norrkoping at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this IFK Norrkoping vs Hammarby FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
IFK Norrkoping host Hammarby FF at Östgötaporten in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 13 August 2020 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
IFK Norrkoping — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W D D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for IFK Norrkoping, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Östgötaporten, IFK Norrkoping have gone 5W 2D 0L this season (7 games, 2.43 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.43 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — IFK Norrkoping are significantly better at Östgötaporten than their overall form suggests.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Hammarby FF have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Hammarby FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hammarby FF away from home this season: 2W 2D 3L from 7 away games — 1.14 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.14 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (IFK Norrkoping) versus 1.60 (Hammarby FF). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
IFK Norrkoping in-play and half-time data (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Hammarby FF in-play and half-time data (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — IFK Norrkoping 79% and Hammarby FF 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Norrkoping 64% | Hammarby FF 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Norrkoping 1.85 xG and Hammarby FF 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Norrkoping attack 1.236 / defence 0.815 | Hammarby FF attack 0.825 / defence 1.342. League average goals — home 1.114 / away 1.306. Hammarby FF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.342 — this is suppressing IFK Norrkoping's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 IFK Norrkoping games / 14 Hammarby FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Norrkoping 59% | Draw 25% | Hammarby FF 16%. Fair-value odds: IFK Norrkoping 1.69 | Draw 4.00 | Hammarby FF 6.25. The model has a clear lean to IFK Norrkoping (59%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, IFK Norrkoping are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: IFK Norrkoping 57% | Hammarby FF 71% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Norrkoping vs Hammarby FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Östgötaporten • Kick-off: Thursday 13 Aug 2020, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Norrkoping 59% | Draw 25% | Hammarby FF 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 50% | xG IFK Norrkoping 1.85 / Hammarby FF 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Norrkoping attack 1.236 / def 0.815 | Hammarby FF attack 0.825 / def 1.342 | league avg home 1.114 / away 1.306 • Poisson stance: IFK Norrkoping (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
IFK Norrkoping xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Hammarby FF xG
50%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Norrkoping vs Hammarby FF kick off?
IFK Norrkoping vs Hammarby FF kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 13 August 2020 at Östgötaporten.
What was the final score in IFK Norrkoping vs Hammarby FF?
IFK Norrkoping 1 - 2 Hammarby FF.
Where is IFK Norrkoping vs Hammarby FF being played?
The match is being played at Östgötaporten.
What competition is IFK Norrkoping vs Hammarby FF part of?
IFK Norrkoping vs Hammarby FF is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Norrkoping vs Hammarby FF?
Our statistical model gives IFK Norrkoping a 59% chance of winning, Hammarby FF a 16% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making IFK Norrkoping the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Norrkoping vs Hammarby FF?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both IFK Norrkoping and Hammarby FF will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Norrkoping vs Hammarby FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Norrkoping and Hammarby FF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are IFK Norrkoping and Hammarby FF in?
IFK Norrkoping (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-D-L-L. Hammarby FF (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
IFK Norrkoping's attacking strength (1.24x league average) is weighed against Hammarby FF's defensive record (1.34x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.85. The same calculation in reverse, Hammarby FF's attack versus IFK Norrkoping's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Norrkoping Win
59%
1.70
25%
4.01
16%
6.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
IFK Norrkoping xG
Total xG
2.73
0.88
Hammarby FF xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
6.19
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
42%
2.41
16%
6.34
Win to Nil
24%
4.08
3%
39.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.1 | 10.6 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.9 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Norrkoping vs Hammarby FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are IFK Norrkoping and Hammarby FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for IFK Norrkoping and 0.88 for Hammarby FF, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Norrkoping vs Hammarby FF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 14 outings, IFK Norrkoping have picked up 1.79 PPG on a 7W 4D 3L record — W-D-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for IFK Norrkoping is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hammarby FF's form line: 5W 5D 4L from 14 games, 1.43 PPG, last five L-W-D-D-W. The sample for Hammarby FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: IFK Norrkoping on 1.79 PPG, Hammarby FF on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, IFK Norrkoping have posted 2.43 PPG from 7 outings (5W 2D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.79 PPG overall — IFK Norrkoping are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Hammarby FF have gone 2W 2D 3L from 7 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IFK Norrkoping come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
IFK Norrkoping are averaging 2.21 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Hammarby FF are on 1.14 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IFK Norrkoping have seen both teams score in 79% of their recent games.
Last 14 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Norrkoping
Blended
Hammarby FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Norrkoping and Hammarby FF in coming into this match?
IFK Norrkoping have gone 7W 4D 3L in their last 14 games (1.79 PPG), while Hammarby FF have gone 5W 5D 4L in their last 14 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Norrkoping at home or Hammarby FF away?
IFK Norrkoping's home record (2.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Norrkoping at home: 2.43 PPG; Hammarby FF away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between IFK Norrkoping and Hammarby FF runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 10 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 May 2022, when Hammarby FF won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IFK Norrkoping's record when hosting Hammarby FF specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
IFK Norrkoping
2
Draws
5
Hammarby FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Norrkoping and Hammarby FF?
From 10 meetings on record, IFK Norrkoping have won 3, Hammarby FF have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IFK Norrkoping and Hammarby FF last play each other?
They last met on 10 August 2025, when IFK Norrkoping 0-2 Hammarby FF.
Who has won more matches between IFK Norrkoping and Hammarby FF?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
IFK Norrkoping are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Norrkoping 57%, Hammarby FF 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 43% for IFK Norrkoping and 86% for Hammarby FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 14% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IFK Norrkoping keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Hammarby FF in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Norrkoping home games / Hammarby FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Norrkoping play Hammarby FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of IFK Norrkoping's games and 71% of Hammarby FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IFK Norrkoping vs Hammarby FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of IFK Norrkoping's matches and 86% of Hammarby FF's.
Do IFK Norrkoping and Hammarby FF tend to score early?
IFK Norrkoping have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Hammarby FF in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hammarby FF defy the odds to beat IFK Norrkoping 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hammarby FF beat IFK Norrkoping 1-2 at Östgötaporten, Regular Season - 15, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Norrkoping 1.85 xG and Hammarby FF 0.88 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. IFK Norrkoping fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Hammarby FF outscored their 0.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Norrkoping attack 1.24 / defence 0.81 against Hammarby FF attack 0.82 / defence 1.34, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Norrkoping 59% | Draw 25% | Hammarby FF 16%, with IFK Norrkoping to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Hammarby FF win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Norrkoping 64%, Hammarby FF 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Norrkoping's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 79% of their matches — today it did.
Hammarby FF's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IFK Norrkoping 1.79 PPG, Hammarby FF 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hammarby FF win broke the near-deadlock. IFK Norrkoping (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.