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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant IFK Norrkoping run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Halmstad.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

IFK Norrkoping beat Halmstad 3-0 at Platinumcars Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Norrkoping 1.74 xG and Halmstad 1.24 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. IFK Norrkoping beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Halmstad landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Norrkoping attack 1.23 / defence 1.28 against Halmstad attack 0.83 / defence 1.06, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it IFK Norrkoping 49% | Draw 24% | Halmstad 27%, with IFK Norrkoping to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Norrkoping 62%, Halmstad 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

IFK Norrkoping's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Halmstad's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — IFK Norrkoping 1.25 PPG, Halmstad 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IFK Norrkoping win broke the near-deadlock. IFK Norrkoping (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line. Halmstad (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights