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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Gais run riot with a 0-3 hammering of IFK Norrkoping.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gais beat IFK Norrkoping 0-3 at Platinumcars Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Norrkoping 1.24 xG and Gais 1.33 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. IFK Norrkoping fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Gais outscored their 1.33 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Norrkoping attack 1.08 / defence 1.18 against Gais attack 0.85 / defence 0.87, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it IFK Norrkoping 35% | Draw 27% | Gais 39%, with Gais to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Norrkoping 62%, Gais 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

IFK Norrkoping's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Gais's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Gais arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.25. That form edge translated into the three points. IFK Norrkoping (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gais (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights