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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Degerfors IF edge out IFK Norrkoping 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Degerfors IF beat IFK Norrkoping 1-2 at Platinumcars Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Norrkoping 2.20 xG and Degerfors IF 2.21 xG, a combined 4.41. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. IFK Norrkoping fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Norrkoping attack 1.17 / defence 1.31 against Degerfors IF attack 1.24 / defence 1.36, drawn from 38/8 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it IFK Norrkoping 40% | Draw 20% | Degerfors IF 40%, with IFK Norrkoping to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Degerfors IF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 40%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 82%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 64% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 79% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Norrkoping 60%, Degerfors IF 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

IFK Norrkoping's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Degerfors IF's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — IFK Norrkoping 1.13 PPG, Degerfors IF 0.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Degerfors IF win broke the near-deadlock. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.53 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights