IFK Norrkoping 0-1 BK Hacken – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IFK Norrkoping at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this IFK Norrkoping vs BK Hacken fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 17 as IFK Norrkoping welcome BK Hacken to Östgötaporten. Kick-off is set for Monday 24 August 2020 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, IFK Norrkoping stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for IFK Norrkoping, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IFK Norrkoping at Östgötaporten this season: 5W 2D 1L from 8 home games — 2.12 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.12 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — IFK Norrkoping are significantly better at Östgötaporten than their overall form suggests.
BK Hacken — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for BK Hacken, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, BK Hacken have gone 1W 4D 2L from 7 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.43 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 86% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. BK Hacken are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. IFK Norrkoping register both teams scoring in 62% of relevant matches, BK Hacken in 86% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
IFK Norrkoping in-play tendencies (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BK Hacken in-play tendencies (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — IFK Norrkoping 81% and BK Hacken 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (IFK Norrkoping 69% | BK Hacken 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Norrkoping 1.75 xG and BK Hacken 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Norrkoping attack 1.138 / defence 0.913 | BK Hacken attack 0.883 / defence 1.367. League average goals — home 1.126 / away 1.350. BK Hacken bring a strong defensive rating of 1.367 — this is suppressing IFK Norrkoping's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 IFK Norrkoping games / 16 BK Hacken games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Norrkoping 52% | Draw 26% | BK Hacken 23%. Fair-value odds: IFK Norrkoping 1.92 | Draw 3.85 | BK Hacken 4.35. IFK Norrkoping hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates IFK Norrkoping as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form BK Hacken (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IFK Norrkoping offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: IFK Norrkoping 62% | BK Hacken 86% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Norrkoping vs BK Hacken | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Östgötaporten • Kick-off: Monday 24 Aug 2020, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Norrkoping 52% | Draw 26% | BK Hacken 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG IFK Norrkoping 1.75 / BK Hacken 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Norrkoping attack 1.138 / def 0.913 | BK Hacken attack 0.883 / def 1.367 | league avg home 1.126 / away 1.350 • Poisson stance: IFK Norrkoping (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
IFK Norrkoping xG
Expected Goals
1.09
BK Hacken xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Norrkoping vs BK Hacken kick off?
IFK Norrkoping vs BK Hacken kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 24 August 2020 at Östgötaporten.
What was the final score in IFK Norrkoping vs BK Hacken?
IFK Norrkoping 0 - 1 BK Hacken.
Where is IFK Norrkoping vs BK Hacken being played?
The match is being played at Östgötaporten.
What competition is IFK Norrkoping vs BK Hacken part of?
IFK Norrkoping vs BK Hacken is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Norrkoping vs BK Hacken?
Our statistical model gives IFK Norrkoping a 52% chance of winning, BK Hacken a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making IFK Norrkoping the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Norrkoping vs BK Hacken?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both IFK Norrkoping and BK Hacken will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Norrkoping vs BK Hacken have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Norrkoping and BK Hacken?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are IFK Norrkoping and BK Hacken in?
IFK Norrkoping (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. BK Hacken (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates IFK Norrkoping's attack at 1.14x the league average against BK Hacken's defence at 1.37x — combine the two and it projects 1.75 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, BK Hacken's attack versus IFK Norrkoping's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Norrkoping Win
52%
1.93
26%
3.91
23%
4.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
IFK Norrkoping xG
Total xG
2.84
1.09
BK Hacken xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
4.44
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
17%
5.76
Win to Nil
18%
5.71
4%
25.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 11.1 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Norrkoping vs BK Hacken?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are IFK Norrkoping and BK Hacken expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for IFK Norrkoping and 1.09 for BK Hacken, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Norrkoping vs BK Hacken?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
IFK Norrkoping come into this having played 16 games, going 8W 4D 4L for 1.75 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-W. The sample for IFK Norrkoping is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, BK Hacken sit at 1.69 PPG from 16 outings (7W 6D 3L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for BK Hacken is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: IFK Norrkoping on 1.75 PPG, BK Hacken on 1.69. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
IFK Norrkoping's home form reads 4W 2D 1L across 7 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, BK Hacken have taken 1.00 points per game from 7 outings (1W 4D 2L). That's a step down from their 1.69 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of BK Hacken's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IFK Norrkoping come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
IFK Norrkoping are averaging 2.19 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; BK Hacken are on 1.81 scored and 1.06 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: IFK Norrkoping have seen both teams score in 81% of their recent games.
Defensively: BK Hacken in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Norrkoping
Blended
BK Hacken
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Norrkoping and BK Hacken in coming into this match?
IFK Norrkoping have gone 8W 4D 4L in their last 16 games (1.75 PPG), while BK Hacken have gone 7W 6D 3L in their last 16 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Norrkoping at home or BK Hacken away?
IFK Norrkoping's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Norrkoping at home: 2.00 PPG; BK Hacken away: 1.00 PPG.
Have IFK Norrkoping or BK Hacken been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Norrkoping have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, BK Hacken in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between IFK Norrkoping and BK Hacken runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 27 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: BK Hacken have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Oct 2021, when BK Hacken won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IFK Norrkoping's record when hosting BK Hacken specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
IFK Norrkoping
4
Draws
5
BK Hacken
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Norrkoping and BK Hacken?
From 10 meetings on record, IFK Norrkoping have won 1, BK Hacken have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did IFK Norrkoping and BK Hacken last play each other?
They last met on 27 September 2025, when BK Hacken 2-0 IFK Norrkoping.
Who has won more matches between IFK Norrkoping and BK Hacken?
BK Hacken have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
IFK Norrkoping are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
BK Hacken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — IFK Norrkoping at 57%, BK Hacken at 86%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (IFK Norrkoping) and 71% (BK Hacken). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 14% and 71% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IFK Norrkoping keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Norrkoping home games / BK Hacken away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Norrkoping play BK Hacken?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of IFK Norrkoping's games and 86% of BK Hacken's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IFK Norrkoping vs BK Hacken usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of IFK Norrkoping's matches and 71% of BK Hacken's.
Do IFK Norrkoping and BK Hacken tend to score early?
IFK Norrkoping have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, BK Hacken in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as BK Hacken defy the odds to beat IFK Norrkoping 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BK Hacken beat IFK Norrkoping 0-1 at Östgötaporten, Regular Season - 17, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Norrkoping 1.75 xG and BK Hacken 1.09 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. IFK Norrkoping fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Norrkoping attack 1.14 / defence 0.91 against BK Hacken attack 0.88 / defence 1.37, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Norrkoping 52% | Draw 26% | BK Hacken 23%, with IFK Norrkoping to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a BK Hacken win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Norrkoping 69%, BK Hacken 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Norrkoping's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 81% of their matches — today it did not.
BK Hacken's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IFK Norrkoping 1.75 PPG, BK Hacken 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the BK Hacken win broke the near-deadlock. IFK Norrkoping (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward. BK Hacken (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.