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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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IFK Norrkoping cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over AIK Stockholm.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

IFK Norrkoping beat AIK Stockholm 3-1 at Platinumcars Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Norrkoping 1.22 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.39 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. IFK Norrkoping beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Norrkoping attack 0.87 / defence 1.26 against AIK Stockholm attack 0.80 / defence 1.00, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it IFK Norrkoping 33% | Draw 27% | AIK Stockholm 41%, with AIK Stockholm to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual IFK Norrkoping win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Norrkoping 60%, AIK Stockholm 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

IFK Norrkoping's trading profile (53 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

AIK Stockholm's trading profile (53 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, AIK Stockholm arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.13. Form was overturned, with IFK Norrkoping winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. IFK Norrkoping (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights