IFK Goteborg 2-2 Sirius – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IFK Goteborg at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IFK Goteborg vs Sirius encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
IFK Goteborg and Sirius meet at Gamla Ullevi in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Monday 17 May 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
IFK Goteborg have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
IFK Goteborg's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Gamla Ullevi this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Sirius (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Sirius have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. IFK Goteborg's 1.40 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Sirius's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading Data
IFK Goteborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Sirius goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — IFK Goteborg 57% and Sirius 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Goteborg 50% | Sirius 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Goteborg 1.55 xG and Sirius 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Goteborg attack 1.053 / defence 1.148 | Sirius attack 1.094 / defence 1.117. League average goals — home 1.321 / away 1.109. Data: 36 IFK Goteborg games / 36 Sirius games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 40% | Draw 28% | Sirius 32%. Fair-value odds: IFK Goteborg 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | Sirius 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.55 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IFK Goteborg at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IFK Goteborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.95 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: IFK Goteborg 50% | Sirius 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Goteborg vs Sirius | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Monday 17 May 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 40% | Draw 28% | Sirius 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 61% | xG IFK Goteborg 1.55 / Sirius 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Goteborg attack 1.053 / def 1.148 | Sirius attack 1.094 / def 1.117 | league avg home 1.321 / away 1.109 • Poisson stance: IFK Goteborg (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
IFK Goteborg xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Sirius xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Goteborg vs Sirius kick off?
IFK Goteborg vs Sirius kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 17 May 2021 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in IFK Goteborg vs Sirius?
IFK Goteborg 2 - 2 Sirius.
Where is IFK Goteborg vs Sirius being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is IFK Goteborg vs Sirius part of?
IFK Goteborg vs Sirius is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Goteborg vs Sirius?
Our statistical model gives IFK Goteborg a 40% chance of winning, Sirius a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making IFK Goteborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Goteborg vs Sirius?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both IFK Goteborg and Sirius will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Goteborg vs Sirius have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and Sirius?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are IFK Goteborg and Sirius in?
IFK Goteborg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Sirius (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
IFK Goteborg's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Sirius's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.55. Flip it around — Sirius's attack (1.09x) against IFK Goteborg's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Goteborg Win
40%
2.53
28%
3.57
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
IFK Goteborg xG
Total xG
2.95
1.39
Sirius xG
2.53
40%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
25%
4.02
21%
4.73
Win to Nil
10%
10.16
7%
14.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.3 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.4 | 7.9 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.8 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Goteborg vs Sirius?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are IFK Goteborg and Sirius expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for IFK Goteborg and 1.39 for Sirius, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Goteborg vs Sirius?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
IFK Goteborg come into this having played 30 games, going 7W 13D 10L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-W.
On the other side, Sirius sit at 1.27 PPG from 30 outings (9W 11D 10L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.13 PPG for IFK Goteborg against 1.27 for Sirius. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
IFK Goteborg's home form reads 3W 5D 7L across 15 games on their own ground, a 0.93 PPG return.
Away from home, Sirius have taken 1.13 points per game from 15 outings (4W 5D 6L).
Attack vs Defence
IFK Goteborg are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Sirius are on 1.43 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sirius in 67%.
Last 30 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Goteborg
Current Season
Sirius
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Goteborg and Sirius in coming into this match?
IFK Goteborg have gone 7W 13D 10L in their last 30 games (1.13 PPG), while Sirius have gone 9W 11D 10L in their last 30 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Goteborg at home or Sirius away?
Sirius's away record (1.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Goteborg at home: 0.93 PPG; Sirius away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sirius won 4-1 on 26 Jul 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IFK Goteborg have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sirius — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
IFK Goteborg
3
Draws
3
Sirius
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and Sirius?
From 10 meetings on record, IFK Goteborg have won 4, Sirius have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did IFK Goteborg and Sirius last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Sirius 4-1 IFK Goteborg.
Who has won more matches between IFK Goteborg and Sirius?
IFK Goteborg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Sirius see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Goteborg 53%, Sirius 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (IFK Goteborg) and 47% (Sirius).
On the defensive side: IFK Goteborg have failed to score in 27% of games; Sirius in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Goteborg home games / Sirius away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Goteborg play Sirius?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of IFK Goteborg's recent matches and 53% of Sirius's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IFK Goteborg vs Sirius usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of IFK Goteborg's recent games and 47% of Sirius's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Goteborg and Sirius tend to score early?
IFK Goteborg have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, Sirius in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IFK Goteborg and Sirius share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 7, as IFK Goteborg and Sirius drew 2-2 in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Goteborg 1.55 xG and Sirius 1.39 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Goteborg attack 1.05 / defence 1.15 against Sirius attack 1.09 / defence 1.12, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Goteborg 40% | Draw 28% | Sirius 32%, with IFK Goteborg to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Goteborg 50%, Sirius 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Sirius's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IFK Goteborg 1.13 PPG, Sirius 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Sirius (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.