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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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IFK Goteborg cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Sirius.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

IFK Goteborg beat Sirius 3-1 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 14, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Goteborg 1.51 xG and Sirius 1.54 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. IFK Goteborg beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Goteborg attack 0.88 / defence 1.02 against Sirius attack 1.19 / defence 1.33, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it IFK Goteborg 37% | Draw 25% | Sirius 38%, with Sirius to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual IFK Goteborg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Goteborg 42%, Sirius 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

IFK Goteborg's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Sirius's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — IFK Goteborg 1.16 PPG, Sirius 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IFK Goteborg win broke the near-deadlock. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm. Sirius (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights