IFK Goteborg 1-1 Sirius – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sirius at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this IFK Goteborg vs Sirius fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
IFK Goteborg and Sirius meet at Gamla Ullevi in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 17 August 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
IFK Goteborg have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W D L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for IFK Goteborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IFK Goteborg's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Gamla Ullevi this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Sirius (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sirius, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sirius have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — IFK Goteborg lead 2W to 2W over the last 6 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 16 May 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
IFK Goteborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Sirius goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Goteborg 48% versus Sirius 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Goteborg 40% | Sirius 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Goteborg 1.23 xG and Sirius 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Goteborg attack 0.770 / defence 1.039 | Sirius attack 1.157 / defence 0.962. League average goals — home 1.658 / away 1.360. IFK Goteborg's attack strength of 0.770 is below the league average — the 1.23 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 48 IFK Goteborg games / 48 Sirius games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 29% | Draw 24% | Sirius 47%. Fair-value odds: IFK Goteborg 3.45 | Draw 4.17 | Sirius 2.13. Sirius hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.86. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.86 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sirius at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sirius if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.86 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: IFK Goteborg 50% | Sirius 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Goteborg vs Sirius | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Aug 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 29% | Draw 24% | Sirius 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 57% | xG IFK Goteborg 1.23 / Sirius 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Goteborg attack 0.770 / def 1.039 | Sirius attack 1.157 / def 0.962 | league avg home 1.658 / away 1.360 • Poisson stance: Sirius (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
IFK Goteborg xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Sirius xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Goteborg vs Sirius kick off?
IFK Goteborg vs Sirius kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 17 August 2024 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in IFK Goteborg vs Sirius?
IFK Goteborg 1 - 1 Sirius.
Where is IFK Goteborg vs Sirius being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is IFK Goteborg vs Sirius part of?
IFK Goteborg vs Sirius is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Goteborg vs Sirius?
Our statistical model gives IFK Goteborg a 29% chance of winning, Sirius a 47% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sirius the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Goteborg vs Sirius?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both IFK Goteborg and Sirius will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Goteborg vs Sirius have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and Sirius?
Record (6 meetings): IFK Goteborg 2W | Draws 2 | Sirius 2W.
What form are IFK Goteborg and Sirius in?
IFK Goteborg (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-D-D. Sirius (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
IFK Goteborg's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Sirius's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. Flip it around — Sirius's attack (1.16x) against IFK Goteborg's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.64.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sirius Win
29%
3.48
24%
4.10
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
IFK Goteborg xG
Total xG
2.86
1.64
Sirius xG
3.48
29%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
19%
5.13
29%
3.42
Win to Nil
6%
17.83
14%
7.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 9.3 | 7.6 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.5 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.0 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Goteborg vs Sirius?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are IFK Goteborg and Sirius expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for IFK Goteborg and 1.64 for Sirius, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Goteborg vs Sirius?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
IFK Goteborg come into this having played 48 games, going 13W 15D 20L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-D-D. The sample for IFK Goteborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sirius sit at 1.44 PPG from 48 outings (20W 9D 19L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Sirius is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for IFK Goteborg against 1.44 for Sirius. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
IFK Goteborg's home form reads 7W 7D 10L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Sirius have taken 1.38 points per game from 24 outings (9W 6D 9L).
Attack vs Defence
IFK Goteborg are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Sirius are on 1.73 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Goteborg
Blended
Sirius
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Goteborg and Sirius in coming into this match?
IFK Goteborg have gone 13W 15D 20L in their last 48 games (1.12 PPG), while Sirius have gone 20W 9D 19L in their last 48 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Goteborg at home or Sirius away?
Sirius's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Goteborg at home: 1.17 PPG; Sirius away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sirius won 4-1 on 26 Jul 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IFK Goteborg have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sirius — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
IFK Goteborg
3
Draws
3
Sirius
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and Sirius?
From 10 meetings on record, IFK Goteborg have won 4, Sirius have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did IFK Goteborg and Sirius last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Sirius 4-1 IFK Goteborg.
Who has won more matches between IFK Goteborg and Sirius?
IFK Goteborg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Goteborg 46%, Sirius 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (IFK Goteborg) and 58% (Sirius).
On the defensive side: IFK Goteborg have failed to score in 33% of games; Sirius in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Goteborg home games / Sirius away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Goteborg play Sirius?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of IFK Goteborg's recent matches and 54% of Sirius's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IFK Goteborg vs Sirius usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of IFK Goteborg's recent games and 58% of Sirius's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Goteborg and Sirius tend to score early?
IFK Goteborg have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Sirius in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IFK Goteborg and Sirius share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Goteborg and Sirius finished level at 1-1 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 19, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Goteborg 1.23 xG and Sirius 1.64 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Goteborg attack 0.77 / defence 1.04 against Sirius attack 1.16 / defence 0.96, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Goteborg 29% | Draw 24% | Sirius 47%, with Sirius to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Goteborg 40%, Sirius 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Sirius's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IFK Goteborg 1.12 PPG, Sirius 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.