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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Osters IF defy the odds to beat IFK Goteborg 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Osters IF beat IFK Goteborg 0-1 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 9, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Goteborg 1.69 xG and Osters IF 1.01 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. IFK Goteborg fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Goteborg attack 0.96 / defence 1.13 against Osters IF attack 0.66 / defence 1.27, drawn from 38/8 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it IFK Goteborg 53% | Draw 24% | Osters IF 22%, with IFK Goteborg to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Osters IF win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Goteborg 37%, Osters IF 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

IFK Goteborg's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Osters IF's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Osters IF arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.03. That form edge translated into the three points. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward. Osters IF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights