IFK Goteborg 1-0 Orgryte IS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IFK Goteborg at 65%, yet other data sources diverge — this IFK Goteborg vs Orgryte IS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Orgryte IS make the trip to Gamla Ullevi to face IFK Goteborg in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Sunday 30 August 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
IFK Goteborg (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for IFK Goteborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Gamla Ullevi, IFK Goteborg have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Orgryte IS's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Orgryte IS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Orgryte IS have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for IFK Goteborg against 0.90 for Orgryte IS. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: IFK Goteborg 1W, Orgryte IS 0W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 19 May 2026, ended 3–2 with IFK Goteborg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
IFK Goteborg — key trading statistics (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Orgryte IS — key trading statistics (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Goteborg 48% versus Orgryte IS 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Goteborg 52% | Orgryte IS 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Goteborg 2.25 xG and Orgryte IS 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Goteborg attack 1.015 / defence 0.984 | Orgryte IS attack 0.734 / defence 1.434. League average goals — home 1.548 / away 1.360. Orgryte IS bring a strong defensive rating of 1.434 — this is suppressing IFK Goteborg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 IFK Goteborg games / 18 Orgryte IS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 65% | Draw 21% | Orgryte IS 14%. Fair-value odds: IFK Goteborg 1.54 | Draw 4.76 | Orgryte IS 7.14. The model has a clear lean to IFK Goteborg (65%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates IFK Goteborg as the most likely outcome at 65% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.24 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: IFK Goteborg 60% | Orgryte IS 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Goteborg vs Orgryte IS | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Aug 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 65% | Draw 21% | Orgryte IS 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 57% | xG IFK Goteborg 2.25 / Orgryte IS 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Goteborg attack 1.015 / def 0.984 | Orgryte IS attack 0.734 / def 1.434 | league avg home 1.548 / away 1.360 • Poisson stance: IFK Goteborg (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.25
IFK Goteborg xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Orgryte IS xG
57%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Goteborg vs Orgryte IS kick off?
IFK Goteborg vs Orgryte IS kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 30 August 2026 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in IFK Goteborg vs Orgryte IS?
IFK Goteborg 1 - 0 Orgryte IS.
Where is IFK Goteborg vs Orgryte IS being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is IFK Goteborg vs Orgryte IS part of?
IFK Goteborg vs Orgryte IS is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Goteborg vs Orgryte IS?
Our statistical model gives IFK Goteborg a 65% chance of winning, Orgryte IS a 14% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making IFK Goteborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Goteborg vs Orgryte IS?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both IFK Goteborg and Orgryte IS will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Goteborg vs Orgryte IS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and Orgryte IS?
Record (1 meetings): IFK Goteborg 1W | Draws 0 | Orgryte IS 0W.
What form are IFK Goteborg and Orgryte IS in?
IFK Goteborg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Orgryte IS (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates IFK Goteborg's attack at 1.01x the league average against Orgryte IS's defence at 1.43x — combine the two and it projects 2.25 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Orgryte IS's attack (0.73x) against IFK Goteborg's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 48/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 10.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Goteborg Win
65%
1.54
21%
4.67
14%
7.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.25
IFK Goteborg xG
Total xG
3.24
0.98
Orgryte IS xG
1.54
65%
Home win
4.67
21%
Draw
7.24
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
10%
9.54
Win to Nil
24%
4.12
1%
69.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.9 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.8 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.5 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Goteborg vs Orgryte IS?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are IFK Goteborg and Orgryte IS expected to score?
The model projects 2.25 expected goals for IFK Goteborg and 0.98 for Orgryte IS, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Goteborg vs Orgryte IS?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
IFK Goteborg's recent record stands at 21W 8D 19L from 48 games, a 1.48 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for IFK Goteborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Orgryte IS, meanwhile, have gone 19W 13D 16L across 48 games — 1.46 PPG, with L-W-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Orgryte IS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.48 PPG for IFK Goteborg against 1.46 for Orgryte IS. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, IFK Goteborg have managed 10W 4D 10L from 24 games — 1.42 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Orgryte IS's away record stands at 9W 5D 10L across 24 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
IFK Goteborg are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Orgryte IS are on 1.65 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Goteborg
Blended
Orgryte IS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Goteborg and Orgryte IS in coming into this match?
IFK Goteborg have gone 21W 8D 19L in their last 48 games (1.48 PPG), while Orgryte IS have gone 19W 13D 16L in their last 48 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Goteborg at home or Orgryte IS away?
IFK Goteborg's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Goteborg at home: 1.42 PPG; Orgryte IS away: 1.33 PPG.
Have IFK Goteborg or Orgryte IS been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Goteborg have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Orgryte IS in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
2
IFK Goteborg
0
Draws
0
Orgryte IS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and Orgryte IS?
From 2 meetings on record, IFK Goteborg have won 2, Orgryte IS have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did IFK Goteborg and Orgryte IS last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when IFK Goteborg 1-0 Orgryte IS.
Who has won more matches between IFK Goteborg and Orgryte IS?
IFK Goteborg have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Goteborg 54%, Orgryte IS 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (IFK Goteborg) and 54% (Orgryte IS).
On the defensive side: Orgryte IS in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Goteborg home games / Orgryte IS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Goteborg play Orgryte IS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of IFK Goteborg's recent matches and 50% of Orgryte IS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IFK Goteborg vs Orgryte IS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of IFK Goteborg's recent games and 54% of Orgryte IS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Goteborg and Orgryte IS tend to score early?
IFK Goteborg have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Orgryte IS in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as IFK Goteborg edge out Orgryte IS 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Goteborg beat Orgryte IS 1-0 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 19, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Goteborg 2.25 xG and Orgryte IS 0.98 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. IFK Goteborg fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Orgryte IS landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Goteborg attack 1.01 / defence 0.98 against Orgryte IS attack 0.73 / defence 1.43, drawn from 48/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Goteborg 65% | Draw 21% | Orgryte IS 14%, with IFK Goteborg to win its most likely call at 65%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Goteborg 52%, Orgryte IS 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Orgryte IS's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IFK Goteborg 1.48 PPG, Orgryte IS 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IFK Goteborg win broke the near-deadlock. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.