IFK Goteborg 2-2 Mjallby AIF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 40% as IFK Goteborg take on Mjallby AIF.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
IFK Goteborg and Mjallby AIF meet at Gamla Ullevi in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Monday 22 June 2020 at 18:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Goteborg 0.81 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Goteborg attack 0.829 / defence 1.097 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.662 / defence 1.285. League average goals — home 0.762 / away 1.474. Mjallby AIF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.285 — this is suppressing IFK Goteborg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 2 IFK Goteborg games / 2 Mjallby AIF games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 23% | Draw 40% | Mjallby AIF 37%. Fair-value odds: IFK Goteborg 4.35 | Draw 2.50 | Mjallby AIF 2.70. The draw (40%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.88. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.88 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 40% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 23% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.88 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 29% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Goteborg vs Mjallby AIF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Monday 22 Jun 2020, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 23% | Draw 40% | Mjallby AIF 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 40% | xG IFK Goteborg 0.81 / Mjallby AIF 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Goteborg attack 0.829 / def 1.097 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.662 / def 1.285 | league avg home 0.762 / away 1.474 • Poisson stance: Draw (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
IFK Goteborg xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Mjallby AIF xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Goteborg vs Mjallby AIF kick off?
IFK Goteborg vs Mjallby AIF kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 22 June 2020 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in IFK Goteborg vs Mjallby AIF?
IFK Goteborg 2 - 2 Mjallby AIF.
Where is IFK Goteborg vs Mjallby AIF being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is IFK Goteborg vs Mjallby AIF part of?
IFK Goteborg vs Mjallby AIF is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Goteborg vs Mjallby AIF?
Our statistical model gives IFK Goteborg a 23% chance of winning, Mjallby AIF a 37% chance, and a 40% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in IFK Goteborg vs Mjallby AIF?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both IFK Goteborg and Mjallby AIF will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Goteborg vs Mjallby AIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and Mjallby AIF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are IFK Goteborg and Mjallby AIF in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates IFK Goteborg's attack at 0.83x the league average against Mjallby AIF's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 0.81 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Mjallby AIF's attack (0.66x) against IFK Goteborg's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 0-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
23%
4.30
40%
2.53
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
IFK Goteborg xG
Total xG
1.88
1.07
Mjallby AIF xG
4.30
23%
Home win
2.53
40%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.47
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
44%
2.25
Win to Nil
8%
12.52
17%
6.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.2 | 16.3 | 8.7 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.2 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Goteborg vs Mjallby AIF?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.0%.
How many goals are IFK Goteborg and Mjallby AIF expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for IFK Goteborg and 1.07 for Mjallby AIF, a combined total of 1.88.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Goteborg vs Mjallby AIF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Goteborg
Pre-Season
Mjallby AIF
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 25 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IFK Goteborg won 1-4 on 5 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IFK Goteborg have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Mjallby AIF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
IFK Goteborg
2
Draws
4
Mjallby AIF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and Mjallby AIF?
From 10 meetings on record, IFK Goteborg have won 4, Mjallby AIF have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IFK Goteborg and Mjallby AIF last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2026, when IFK Goteborg 1-1 Mjallby AIF.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Goteborg home games / Mjallby AIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
IFK Goteborg and Mjallby AIF share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Goteborg and Mjallby AIF finished level at 2-2 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 3, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Goteborg 0.81 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.07 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. IFK Goteborg beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Mjallby AIF outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Goteborg attack 0.83 / defence 1.10 against Mjallby AIF attack 0.66 / defence 1.28, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it IFK Goteborg 23% | Draw 40% | Mjallby AIF 37%, with the draw its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.