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Mjallby AIF cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over IFK Goteborg.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mjallby AIF beat IFK Goteborg 0-2 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 27, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Goteborg 0.82 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.34 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. IFK Goteborg fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Goteborg attack 0.86 / defence 0.88 against Mjallby AIF attack 1.12 / defence 0.63, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it IFK Goteborg 23% | Draw 29% | Mjallby AIF 48%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Goteborg 45%, Mjallby AIF 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

IFK Goteborg's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Mjallby AIF's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Mjallby AIF arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.34. Form held, and they took the win. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights