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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as IFK Goteborg defy the odds to beat Malmo FF 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

IFK Goteborg beat Malmo FF 1-0 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 11, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Goteborg 1.04 xG and Malmo FF 1.68 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Malmo FF landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Goteborg attack 0.81 / defence 1.15 against Malmo FF attack 1.08 / defence 0.92, drawn from 40/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it IFK Goteborg 23% | Draw 26% | Malmo FF 52%, with Malmo FF to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a IFK Goteborg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Goteborg 38%, Malmo FF 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

IFK Goteborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Malmo FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Malmo FF arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 1.08. Form was overturned, with IFK Goteborg winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Malmo FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.77 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights