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Prediction vindicated as IFK Goteborg edge out IFK Varnamo 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

IFK Goteborg beat IFK Varnamo 1-0 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 22, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Goteborg 1.86 xG and IFK Varnamo 0.98 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. IFK Goteborg fell 0.9 short of their projected output. IFK Varnamo landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Goteborg attack 1.12 / defence 0.89 against IFK Varnamo attack 0.79 / defence 1.24, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it IFK Goteborg 57% | Draw 24% | IFK Varnamo 19%, with IFK Goteborg to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Goteborg 45%, IFK Varnamo 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

IFK Goteborg's trading profile (51 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.

IFK Varnamo's trading profile (51 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — IFK Goteborg 1.29 PPG, IFK Varnamo 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IFK Goteborg win broke the near-deadlock. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. IFK Varnamo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights