IFK Goteborg 1-2 IFK Norrkoping – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IFK Norrkoping at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this IFK Goteborg vs IFK Norrkoping fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Gamla Ullevi plays host to IFK Goteborg versus IFK Norrkoping in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Monday 2 August 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
IFK Goteborg (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for IFK Goteborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IFK Goteborg's home record at Gamla Ullevi: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
IFK Norrkoping's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for IFK Norrkoping, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, IFK Norrkoping have posted 4W 0D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. IFK Norrkoping are 0.50 PPG clear of IFK Goteborg in recent Allsvenskan fixtures (1.60 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading & In-Play
IFK Goteborg — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
IFK Norrkoping — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 95% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — IFK Goteborg 55% and IFK Norrkoping 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Goteborg 45% | IFK Norrkoping 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Goteborg 1.27 xG and IFK Norrkoping 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Goteborg attack 1.017 / defence 1.189 | IFK Norrkoping attack 0.984 / defence 0.853. League average goals — home 1.464 / away 1.089. Data: 42 IFK Goteborg games / 42 IFK Norrkoping games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 35% | Draw 30% | IFK Norrkoping 35%. Fair-value odds: IFK Goteborg 2.86 | Draw 3.33 | IFK Norrkoping 2.86. The draw (30%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 30% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: IFK Goteborg 50% | IFK Norrkoping 40%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Goteborg vs IFK Norrkoping | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Monday 2 Aug 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 35% | Draw 30% | IFK Norrkoping 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 54% | xG IFK Goteborg 1.27 / IFK Norrkoping 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Goteborg attack 1.017 / def 1.189 | IFK Norrkoping attack 0.984 / def 0.853 | league avg home 1.464 / away 1.089 • Poisson stance: Draw (30%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
IFK Goteborg xG
Expected Goals
1.27
IFK Norrkoping xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Goteborg vs IFK Norrkoping kick off?
IFK Goteborg vs IFK Norrkoping kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 2 August 2021 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in IFK Goteborg vs IFK Norrkoping?
IFK Goteborg 1 - 2 IFK Norrkoping.
Where is IFK Goteborg vs IFK Norrkoping being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is IFK Goteborg vs IFK Norrkoping part of?
IFK Goteborg vs IFK Norrkoping is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Goteborg vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our statistical model gives IFK Goteborg a 35% chance of winning, IFK Norrkoping a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in IFK Goteborg vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both IFK Goteborg and IFK Norrkoping will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Goteborg vs IFK Norrkoping have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and IFK Norrkoping?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are IFK Goteborg and IFK Norrkoping in?
IFK Goteborg (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. IFK Norrkoping (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates IFK Goteborg's attack at 1.02x the league average against IFK Norrkoping's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — IFK Norrkoping's attack (0.98x) against IFK Goteborg's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Norrkoping Win
35%
2.88
30%
3.30
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
IFK Goteborg xG
Total xG
2.54
1.27
IFK Norrkoping xG
2.88
35%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
28%
3.56
Win to Nil
10%
10.30
10%
10.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 10.0 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.7 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.1 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Goteborg vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are IFK Goteborg and IFK Norrkoping expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for IFK Goteborg and 1.27 for IFK Norrkoping, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Goteborg vs IFK Norrkoping?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 42 outings, IFK Goteborg have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 10W 19D 13L record — D-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for IFK Goteborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IFK Norrkoping's form line: 18W 9D 15L from 42 games, 1.50 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-L. The sample for IFK Norrkoping is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for IFK Goteborg against 1.50 for IFK Norrkoping. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, IFK Goteborg have posted 1.05 PPG from 21 outings (5W 7D 9L).
On the road, IFK Norrkoping have gone 9W 2D 10L from 21 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
IFK Goteborg are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; IFK Norrkoping are on 1.79 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IFK Norrkoping in 69%.
Last 42 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Goteborg
Blended
IFK Norrkoping
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Goteborg and IFK Norrkoping in coming into this match?
IFK Goteborg have gone 10W 19D 13L in their last 42 games (1.17 PPG), while IFK Norrkoping have gone 18W 9D 15L in their last 42 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Goteborg at home or IFK Norrkoping away?
IFK Norrkoping's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Goteborg at home: 1.05 PPG; IFK Norrkoping away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 9 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
IFK Goteborg go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IFK Norrkoping won 3-0 on 7 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IFK Goteborg have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against IFK Norrkoping — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
IFK Goteborg
2
Draws
2
IFK Norrkoping
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and IFK Norrkoping?
From 10 meetings on record, IFK Goteborg have won 6, IFK Norrkoping have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IFK Goteborg and IFK Norrkoping last play each other?
They last met on 9 November 2025, when IFK Goteborg 2-0 IFK Norrkoping.
Who has won more matches between IFK Goteborg and IFK Norrkoping?
IFK Goteborg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
IFK Norrkoping are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 95% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Goteborg 57%, IFK Norrkoping 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (IFK Goteborg) and 67% (IFK Norrkoping). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Goteborg home games / IFK Norrkoping away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Goteborg play IFK Norrkoping?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of IFK Goteborg's games and 67% of IFK Norrkoping's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IFK Goteborg vs IFK Norrkoping usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of IFK Goteborg's matches and 67% of IFK Norrkoping's.
Do IFK Goteborg and IFK Norrkoping tend to score early?
IFK Goteborg have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, IFK Norrkoping in 95% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as IFK Norrkoping edge out IFK Goteborg 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Norrkoping beat IFK Goteborg 1-2 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 13, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Goteborg 1.27 xG and IFK Norrkoping 1.27 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Goteborg attack 1.02 / defence 1.19 against IFK Norrkoping attack 0.98 / defence 0.85, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Goteborg 35% | Draw 30% | IFK Norrkoping 35%, with IFK Goteborg to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual IFK Norrkoping win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Goteborg 45%, IFK Norrkoping 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
IFK Norrkoping's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IFK Goteborg 1.17 PPG, IFK Norrkoping 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IFK Norrkoping win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.