IFK Goteborg 1-3 IFK Norrkoping – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IFK Norrkoping at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this IFK Goteborg vs IFK Norrkoping fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Gamla Ullevi plays host to IFK Goteborg versus IFK Norrkoping in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Monday 17 August 2020 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
IFK Goteborg (all games): 0W 7D 3L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L D D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for IFK Goteborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IFK Goteborg's home record at Gamla Ullevi: 1W 4D 3L from 8 Allsvenskan appearances (0.88 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
IFK Norrkoping's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D D L L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for IFK Norrkoping, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, IFK Norrkoping have posted 2W 2D 3L from 7 away outings — 1.14 PPG. They are averaging 2.43 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. IFK Norrkoping are 0.50 PPG clear of IFK Goteborg in recent Allsvenskan fixtures (1.20 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — IFK Goteborg have seen both teams score in 62% of their games, IFK Norrkoping in 100%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
IFK Goteborg — key trading statistics (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
IFK Norrkoping — key trading statistics (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — IFK Goteborg 73% and IFK Norrkoping 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Goteborg 53% | IFK Norrkoping 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Goteborg 1.65 xG and IFK Norrkoping 2.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Goteborg attack 0.879 / defence 1.378 | IFK Norrkoping attack 1.255 / defence 1.678. League average goals — home 1.118 / away 1.364. IFK Norrkoping bring a strong defensive rating of 1.678 — this is suppressing IFK Goteborg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. IFK Norrkoping have an above-average attack strength of 1.255 — the away xG of 2.36 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 15 IFK Goteborg games / 15 IFK Norrkoping games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 26% | Draw 21% | IFK Norrkoping 53%. Fair-value odds: IFK Goteborg 3.85 | Draw 4.76 | IFK Norrkoping 1.89. IFK Norrkoping hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 74% | Total xG 4.01. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 4.01 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% reflects that both xG figures (1.65 / 2.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates IFK Norrkoping as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 4.01 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 76% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 74% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: IFK Goteborg 62% | IFK Norrkoping 100% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Goteborg vs IFK Norrkoping | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Monday 17 Aug 2020, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 26% | Draw 21% | IFK Norrkoping 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 74% | xG IFK Goteborg 1.65 / IFK Norrkoping 2.36 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Goteborg attack 0.879 / def 1.378 | IFK Norrkoping attack 1.255 / def 1.678 | league avg home 1.118 / away 1.364 • Poisson stance: IFK Norrkoping (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
IFK Goteborg xG
Expected Goals
2.36
IFK Norrkoping xG
74%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Goteborg vs IFK Norrkoping kick off?
IFK Goteborg vs IFK Norrkoping kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 17 August 2020 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in IFK Goteborg vs IFK Norrkoping?
IFK Goteborg 1 - 3 IFK Norrkoping.
Where is IFK Goteborg vs IFK Norrkoping being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is IFK Goteborg vs IFK Norrkoping part of?
IFK Goteborg vs IFK Norrkoping is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Goteborg vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our statistical model gives IFK Goteborg a 26% chance of winning, IFK Norrkoping a 53% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making IFK Norrkoping the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Goteborg vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both IFK Goteborg and IFK Norrkoping will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Goteborg vs IFK Norrkoping have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and IFK Norrkoping?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are IFK Goteborg and IFK Norrkoping in?
IFK Goteborg (all comps): 0W-7D-3L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-D-D. IFK Norrkoping (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates IFK Goteborg's attack at 0.88x the league average against IFK Norrkoping's defence at 1.68x — combine the two and it projects 1.65 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — IFK Norrkoping's attack (1.25x) against IFK Goteborg's defence (1.38x) — and the away total comes out at 2.36.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 8.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.0%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Norrkoping Win
26%
3.86
21%
4.70
53%
1.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.1%
Draw
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
IFK Goteborg xG
Total xG
4.01
2.36
IFK Norrkoping xG
3.86
26%
Home win
4.70
21%
Draw
1.89
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
57%
Over 3.5
1.75
43%
Under 3.5
2.33
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.35
26%
BTTS No
3.85
Clean Sheet
9%
10.59
19%
5.21
Win to Nil
2%
40.88
10%
9.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 3.0 | 7.1 | 8.3 | 6.6 | 3.9 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 5.8 | 6.9 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 1.5 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Goteborg vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.3%.
How many goals are IFK Goteborg and IFK Norrkoping expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for IFK Goteborg and 2.36 for IFK Norrkoping, a combined total of 4.01.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Goteborg vs IFK Norrkoping?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 15 outings, IFK Goteborg have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 2W 9D 4L record — D-L-D-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for IFK Goteborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IFK Norrkoping's form line: 7W 4D 4L from 15 games, 1.67 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-L. The sample for IFK Norrkoping is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, IFK Norrkoping are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against IFK Goteborg.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, IFK Goteborg have posted 1.00 PPG from 7 outings (1W 4D 2L).
On the road, IFK Norrkoping have gone 2W 2D 3L from 7 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.67 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of IFK Norrkoping's season.
Attack vs Defence
IFK Goteborg are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; IFK Norrkoping are on 2.13 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IFK Goteborg have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games; IFK Norrkoping in 80%.
Last 15 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Goteborg
Blended
IFK Norrkoping
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Goteborg and IFK Norrkoping in coming into this match?
IFK Goteborg have gone 2W 9D 4L in their last 15 games (1.00 PPG), while IFK Norrkoping have gone 7W 4D 4L in their last 15 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Goteborg at home or IFK Norrkoping away?
IFK Norrkoping's away record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Goteborg at home: 1.00 PPG; IFK Norrkoping away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 9 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
IFK Goteborg go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IFK Norrkoping won 3-0 on 7 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IFK Goteborg have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against IFK Norrkoping — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
IFK Goteborg
2
Draws
2
IFK Norrkoping
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and IFK Norrkoping?
From 10 meetings on record, IFK Goteborg have won 6, IFK Norrkoping have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IFK Goteborg and IFK Norrkoping last play each other?
They last met on 9 November 2025, when IFK Goteborg 2-0 IFK Norrkoping.
Who has won more matches between IFK Goteborg and IFK Norrkoping?
IFK Goteborg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
IFK Norrkoping are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 71% for IFK Goteborg, 100% for IFK Norrkoping — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for IFK Goteborg and 86% for IFK Norrkoping. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 71% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Goteborg home games / IFK Norrkoping away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Goteborg play IFK Norrkoping?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of IFK Goteborg's games and 100% of IFK Norrkoping's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IFK Goteborg vs IFK Norrkoping usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of IFK Goteborg's matches and 86% of IFK Norrkoping's.
Do IFK Goteborg and IFK Norrkoping tend to score early?
IFK Goteborg have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, IFK Norrkoping in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IFK Norrkoping cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over IFK Goteborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Norrkoping beat IFK Goteborg 1-3 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 16, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Goteborg 1.65 xG and IFK Norrkoping 2.36 xG, a combined 4.01. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Goteborg attack 0.88 / defence 1.38 against IFK Norrkoping attack 1.25 / defence 1.68, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Goteborg 26% | Draw 21% | IFK Norrkoping 53%, with IFK Norrkoping to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Goteborg 53%, IFK Norrkoping 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 77%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
IFK Norrkoping's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, IFK Norrkoping arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IFK Norrkoping (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.