IFK Goteborg 0-1 IF Elfsborg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates IF Elfsborg at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this IFK Goteborg vs IF Elfsborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
IFK Goteborg and IF Elfsborg meet at Gamla Ullevi in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 14 June 2020 at 13:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Goteborg 1.32 xG and IF Elfsborg 2.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Goteborg attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | IF Elfsborg attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.350 / away 2.046. Data: 0 IFK Goteborg games / 0 IF Elfsborg games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 22% | Draw 27% | IF Elfsborg 50%. Fair-value odds: IFK Goteborg 4.55 | Draw 3.70 | IF Elfsborg 2.00. IF Elfsborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.32 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.32 / 2.00) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IF Elfsborg at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IF Elfsborg if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.32 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Goteborg vs IF Elfsborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Jun 2020, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 22% | Draw 27% | IF Elfsborg 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 66% | xG IFK Goteborg 1.32 / IF Elfsborg 2.00 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Goteborg attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | IF Elfsborg attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.350 / away 2.046 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
IFK Goteborg xG
Expected Goals
2.00
IF Elfsborg xG
66%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Goteborg vs IF Elfsborg kick off?
IFK Goteborg vs IF Elfsborg kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 14 June 2020 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in IFK Goteborg vs IF Elfsborg?
IFK Goteborg 0 - 1 IF Elfsborg.
Where is IFK Goteborg vs IF Elfsborg being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is IFK Goteborg vs IF Elfsborg part of?
IFK Goteborg vs IF Elfsborg is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Goteborg vs IF Elfsborg?
Our statistical model gives IFK Goteborg a 22% chance of winning, IF Elfsborg a 50% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Goteborg vs IF Elfsborg?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both IFK Goteborg and IF Elfsborg will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Goteborg vs IF Elfsborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and IF Elfsborg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are IFK Goteborg and IF Elfsborg in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
IFK Goteborg's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against IF Elfsborg's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. Flip it around — IF Elfsborg's attack (0.85x) against IFK Goteborg's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 2.00.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
22%
4.49
27%
3.65
50%
1.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
IFK Goteborg xG
Total xG
3.32
2.00
IF Elfsborg xG
4.49
22%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
1.99
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.96
Clean Sheet
14%
7.39
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
3%
33.19
13%
7.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Goteborg vs IF Elfsborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are IFK Goteborg and IF Elfsborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for IFK Goteborg and 2.00 for IF Elfsborg, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Goteborg vs IF Elfsborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Goteborg
Pre-Season
IF Elfsborg
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
IF Elfsborg have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IFK Goteborg have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against IF Elfsborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
IFK Goteborg
1
Draws
8
IF Elfsborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and IF Elfsborg?
From 10 meetings on record, IFK Goteborg have won 1, IF Elfsborg have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IFK Goteborg and IF Elfsborg last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when IF Elfsborg 2-0 IFK Goteborg.
Who has won more matches between IFK Goteborg and IF Elfsborg?
IF Elfsborg have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Goteborg home games / IF Elfsborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as IF Elfsborg edge out IFK Goteborg 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Elfsborg beat IFK Goteborg 0-1 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 1, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Goteborg 1.32 xG and IF Elfsborg 2.00 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. IFK Goteborg fell 1.3 short of their projected output. IF Elfsborg landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Goteborg attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against IF Elfsborg attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Goteborg 22% | Draw 27% | IF Elfsborg 50%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.