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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as IF Elfsborg edge out IFK Goteborg 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

IF Elfsborg beat IFK Goteborg 1-2 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 15, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Goteborg 1.10 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.14 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. IF Elfsborg outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Goteborg attack 1.00 / defence 0.97 against IF Elfsborg attack 0.94 / defence 0.83, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it IFK Goteborg 34% | Draw 29% | IF Elfsborg 36%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Goteborg 43%, IF Elfsborg 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

IFK Goteborg's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

IF Elfsborg's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, IF Elfsborg arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.20. Form held, and they took the win. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights