IFK Goteborg 1-0 IF Elfsborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IFK Goteborg at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this IFK Goteborg vs IF Elfsborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
IFK Goteborg and IF Elfsborg meet at Gamla Ullevi in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 1 June 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
IFK Goteborg's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, IFK Goteborg have posted 4W 2D 4L at Gamla Ullevi — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
IF Elfsborg (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W W D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
IF Elfsborg's away record: 6W 0D 4L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to IF Elfsborg, who have claimed 4 wins from 5 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.8 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2023, ended 1–2 with IF Elfsborg winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. IF Elfsborg have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
IFK Goteborg half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
IF Elfsborg half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Goteborg 48% versus IF Elfsborg 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Goteborg 45% | IF Elfsborg 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Goteborg 1.24 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Goteborg attack 0.672 / defence 1.040 | IF Elfsborg attack 0.853 / defence 1.145. League average goals — home 1.610 / away 1.337. IFK Goteborg's attack strength of 0.672 is below the league average — the 1.24 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 41 IFK Goteborg games / 42 IF Elfsborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 38% | Draw 27% | IF Elfsborg 35%. Fair-value odds: IFK Goteborg 2.63 | Draw 3.70 | IF Elfsborg 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IFK Goteborg at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IFK Goteborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: IFK Goteborg 50% | IF Elfsborg 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Goteborg vs IF Elfsborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Jun 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 38% | Draw 27% | IF Elfsborg 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG IFK Goteborg 1.24 / IF Elfsborg 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Goteborg attack 0.672 / def 1.040 | IF Elfsborg attack 0.853 / def 1.145 | league avg home 1.610 / away 1.337 • Poisson stance: IFK Goteborg (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
IFK Goteborg xG
Expected Goals
1.19
IF Elfsborg xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Goteborg vs IF Elfsborg kick off?
IFK Goteborg vs IF Elfsborg kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 1 June 2024 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in IFK Goteborg vs IF Elfsborg?
IFK Goteborg 1 - 0 IF Elfsborg.
Where is IFK Goteborg vs IF Elfsborg being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is IFK Goteborg vs IF Elfsborg part of?
IFK Goteborg vs IF Elfsborg is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Goteborg vs IF Elfsborg?
Our statistical model gives IFK Goteborg a 38% chance of winning, IF Elfsborg a 35% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making IFK Goteborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Goteborg vs IF Elfsborg?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both IFK Goteborg and IF Elfsborg will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Goteborg vs IF Elfsborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and IF Elfsborg?
Record (5 meetings): IFK Goteborg 0W | Draws 1 | IF Elfsborg 4W.
What form are IFK Goteborg and IF Elfsborg in?
IFK Goteborg (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. IF Elfsborg (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
IFK Goteborg's attacking strength (0.67x league average) is weighed against IF Elfsborg's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. Flip it around — IF Elfsborg's attack (0.85x) against IFK Goteborg's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 41/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Goteborg Win
38%
2.66
27%
3.64
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
IFK Goteborg xG
Total xG
2.43
1.19
IF Elfsborg xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
31%
3.28
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
11%
8.73
10%
9.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 10.5 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.0 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Goteborg vs IF Elfsborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are IFK Goteborg and IF Elfsborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for IFK Goteborg and 1.19 for IF Elfsborg, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Goteborg vs IF Elfsborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
IFK Goteborg's recent record stands at 22W 13D 25L from 60 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-W in the last five.
IF Elfsborg, meanwhile, have gone 33W 14D 13L across 60 games — 1.88 PPG, with W-W-W-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours IF Elfsborg by 0.56 — a real, if not enormous, edge over IFK Goteborg heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, IFK Goteborg have managed 12W 7D 11L from 30 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
IF Elfsborg's away record stands at 15W 6D 9L across 30 trips, a 1.70 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
IFK Goteborg are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; IF Elfsborg are on 1.90 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Goteborg
Current Season
IF Elfsborg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Goteborg and IF Elfsborg in coming into this match?
IFK Goteborg have gone 22W 13D 25L in their last 60 games (1.32 PPG), while IF Elfsborg have gone 33W 14D 13L in their last 60 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Goteborg at home or IF Elfsborg away?
IF Elfsborg's away record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Goteborg at home: 1.43 PPG; IF Elfsborg away: 1.70 PPG.
Have IFK Goteborg or IF Elfsborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Goteborg have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, IF Elfsborg in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
IF Elfsborg have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IFK Goteborg have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against IF Elfsborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
IFK Goteborg
1
Draws
8
IF Elfsborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and IF Elfsborg?
From 10 meetings on record, IFK Goteborg have won 1, IF Elfsborg have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IFK Goteborg and IF Elfsborg last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when IF Elfsborg 2-0 IFK Goteborg.
Who has won more matches between IFK Goteborg and IF Elfsborg?
IF Elfsborg have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Goteborg 50%, IF Elfsborg 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (IFK Goteborg) and 50% (IF Elfsborg).
On the defensive side: IF Elfsborg in 33%; IF Elfsborg in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Goteborg home games / IF Elfsborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Goteborg play IF Elfsborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of IFK Goteborg's recent matches and 43% of IF Elfsborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IFK Goteborg vs IF Elfsborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of IFK Goteborg's recent games and 50% of IF Elfsborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Goteborg and IF Elfsborg tend to score early?
IFK Goteborg have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, IF Elfsborg in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as IFK Goteborg edge out IF Elfsborg 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Goteborg beat IF Elfsborg 1-0 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 12, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Goteborg 1.24 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.19 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. IF Elfsborg landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Goteborg attack 0.67 / defence 1.04 against IF Elfsborg attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 41/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Goteborg 38% | Draw 27% | IF Elfsborg 35%, with IFK Goteborg to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Goteborg 45%, IF Elfsborg 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, IF Elfsborg arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.32. Form was overturned, with IFK Goteborg winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.