IFK Goteborg 0-4 Hammarby FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hammarby FF at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this IFK Goteborg vs Hammarby FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 19 as IFK Goteborg welcome Hammarby FF to Gamla Ullevi. Kick-off is set for Thursday 10 September 2020 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, IFK Goteborg have gone 0W 8D 2L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D D L D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for IFK Goteborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IFK Goteborg's home record at Gamla Ullevi: 1W 4D 4L from 9 Allsvenskan appearances (0.78 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hammarby FF stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Hammarby FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Hammarby FF have posted 3W 2D 4L from 9 away outings — 1.22 PPG. Away from home they average 1.22 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Hammarby FF's 1.40 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of IFK Goteborg's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. IFK Goteborg register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Hammarby FF in 78% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
IFK Goteborg in-play tendencies (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Hammarby FF in-play tendencies (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 89% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — IFK Goteborg 78% and Hammarby FF 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Goteborg 56% | Hammarby FF 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Goteborg 1.26 xG and Hammarby FF 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Goteborg attack 0.824 / defence 1.380 | Hammarby FF attack 0.815 / defence 1.337. League average goals — home 1.146 / away 1.379. Hammarby FF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.337 — this is suppressing IFK Goteborg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 IFK Goteborg games / 18 Hammarby FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 30% | Draw 27% | Hammarby FF 43%. Fair-value odds: IFK Goteborg 3.33 | Draw 3.70 | Hammarby FF 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hammarby FF as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hammarby FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: IFK Goteborg 67% | Hammarby FF 78% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Goteborg vs Hammarby FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Thursday 10 Sep 2020, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 30% | Draw 27% | Hammarby FF 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 58% | xG IFK Goteborg 1.26 / Hammarby FF 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Goteborg attack 0.824 / def 1.380 | Hammarby FF attack 0.815 / def 1.337 | league avg home 1.146 / away 1.379 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
IFK Goteborg xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Hammarby FF xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Goteborg vs Hammarby FF kick off?
IFK Goteborg vs Hammarby FF kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 10 September 2020 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in IFK Goteborg vs Hammarby FF?
IFK Goteborg 0 - 4 Hammarby FF.
Where is IFK Goteborg vs Hammarby FF being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is IFK Goteborg vs Hammarby FF part of?
IFK Goteborg vs Hammarby FF is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Goteborg vs Hammarby FF?
Our statistical model gives IFK Goteborg a 30% chance of winning, Hammarby FF a 43% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Goteborg vs Hammarby FF?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both IFK Goteborg and Hammarby FF will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Goteborg vs Hammarby FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and Hammarby FF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are IFK Goteborg and Hammarby FF in?
IFK Goteborg (all comps): 0W-8D-2L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-D-D. Hammarby FF (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
IFK Goteborg's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Hammarby FF's defensive record (1.34x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. The same calculation in reverse, Hammarby FF's attack versus IFK Goteborg's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
30%
3.35
27%
3.67
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
IFK Goteborg xG
Total xG
2.81
1.55
Hammarby FF xG
3.35
30%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
21%
4.72
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
6%
15.78
12%
8.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 9.3 | 7.2 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.7 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.4 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Goteborg vs Hammarby FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are IFK Goteborg and Hammarby FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for IFK Goteborg and 1.55 for Hammarby FF, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Goteborg vs Hammarby FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 18 outings, IFK Goteborg have picked up 0.94 PPG on a 2W 11D 5L record — D-D-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for IFK Goteborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hammarby FF's form line: 6W 7D 5L from 18 games, 1.39 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-D. The sample for Hammarby FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Hammarby FF are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against IFK Goteborg.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, IFK Goteborg have posted 0.78 PPG from 9 outings (1W 4D 4L).
On the road, Hammarby FF have gone 3W 2D 4L from 9 away games — 1.22 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hammarby FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
IFK Goteborg are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Hammarby FF are on 1.33 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IFK Goteborg have seen both teams score in 78% of their recent games; Hammarby FF in 61%.
Last 18 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Goteborg
Blended
Hammarby FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Goteborg and Hammarby FF in coming into this match?
IFK Goteborg have gone 2W 11D 5L in their last 18 games (0.94 PPG), while Hammarby FF have gone 6W 7D 5L in their last 18 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Goteborg at home or Hammarby FF away?
Hammarby FF's away record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Goteborg at home: 0.78 PPG; Hammarby FF away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between IFK Goteborg and Hammarby FF runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Hammarby FF have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Mar 2025, when Hammarby FF won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IFK Goteborg's record when hosting Hammarby FF specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
IFK Goteborg
2
Draws
7
Hammarby FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and Hammarby FF?
From 10 meetings on record, IFK Goteborg have won 1, Hammarby FF have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IFK Goteborg and Hammarby FF last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when IFK Goteborg 0-1 Hammarby FF.
Who has won more matches between IFK Goteborg and Hammarby FF?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — IFK Goteborg at 67%, Hammarby FF at 78%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for IFK Goteborg and 89% for Hammarby FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Goteborg home games / Hammarby FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Goteborg play Hammarby FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of IFK Goteborg's games and 78% of Hammarby FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IFK Goteborg vs Hammarby FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of IFK Goteborg's matches and 89% of Hammarby FF's.
Do IFK Goteborg and Hammarby FF tend to score early?
IFK Goteborg have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Hammarby FF in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hammarby FF run riot with a 0-4 hammering of IFK Goteborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hammarby FF beat IFK Goteborg 0-4 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 19, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Goteborg 1.26 xG and Hammarby FF 1.55 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. IFK Goteborg fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Hammarby FF outscored their 1.55 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Goteborg attack 0.82 / defence 1.38 against Hammarby FF attack 0.81 / defence 1.34, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Goteborg 30% | Draw 27% | Hammarby FF 43%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Goteborg 56%, Hammarby FF 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did not.
Hammarby FF's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Hammarby FF arrived the stronger side — 1.39 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was vindicated by the result. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.22 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.