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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Hammarby FF defy the odds to beat IFK Goteborg 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hammarby FF beat IFK Goteborg 1-2 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 26, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Goteborg 1.35 xG and Hammarby FF 1.20 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Hammarby FF outscored their 1.20 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Goteborg attack 0.89 / defence 0.83 against Hammarby FF attack 1.10 / defence 1.03, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it IFK Goteborg 40% | Draw 27% | Hammarby FF 33%, with IFK Goteborg to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Hammarby FF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Goteborg 44%, Hammarby FF 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

IFK Goteborg's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Hammarby FF's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Hammarby FF arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.36. The form guide was vindicated by the result. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights