🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as IFK Goteborg edge out Halmstad 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

IFK Goteborg beat Halmstad 1-0 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 2, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Goteborg 1.54 xG and Halmstad 1.28 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Halmstad landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Goteborg attack 0.96 / defence 0.98 against Halmstad attack 0.94 / defence 1.11, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it IFK Goteborg 43% | Draw 25% | Halmstad 32%, with IFK Goteborg to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Goteborg 38%, Halmstad 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

IFK Goteborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Halmstad's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — IFK Goteborg 1.08 PPG, Halmstad 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IFK Goteborg win broke the near-deadlock. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Halmstad (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.10 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights