IFK Goteborg 1-1 Halmstad – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IFK Goteborg at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this IFK Goteborg vs Halmstad fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
IFK Goteborg and Halmstad meet at Gamla Ullevi in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Monday 23 September 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
IFK Goteborg's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D D L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for IFK Goteborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IFK Goteborg's home record at Gamla Ullevi: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Halmstad have collected 0.30 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 1W 0D 9L. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Halmstad, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Halmstad have gone 2W 0D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in IFK Goteborg's favour (0.80 vs 0.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for IFK Goteborg, 1 for Halmstad and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 5 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Apr 2024, ended 0–1 with Halmstad winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
IFK Goteborg half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Halmstad half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Goteborg 50% versus Halmstad 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Goteborg 40% | Halmstad 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Goteborg 1.69 xG and Halmstad 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Goteborg attack 0.749 / defence 0.998 | Halmstad attack 0.822 / defence 1.440. League average goals — home 1.561 / away 1.302. IFK Goteborg's attack strength of 0.749 is below the league average — the 1.69 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Halmstad bring a strong defensive rating of 1.440 — this is suppressing IFK Goteborg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 IFK Goteborg games / 52 Halmstad games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 52% | Draw 24% | Halmstad 24%. Fair-value odds: IFK Goteborg 1.92 | Draw 4.17 | Halmstad 4.17. IFK Goteborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, IFK Goteborg are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IFK Goteborg if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: IFK Goteborg 40% | Halmstad 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Goteborg vs Halmstad | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Monday 23 Sep 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 52% | Draw 24% | Halmstad 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 53% | xG IFK Goteborg 1.69 / Halmstad 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Goteborg attack 0.749 / def 0.998 | Halmstad attack 0.822 / def 1.440 | league avg home 1.561 / away 1.302 • Poisson stance: IFK Goteborg (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
IFK Goteborg xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Halmstad xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Goteborg vs Halmstad kick off?
IFK Goteborg vs Halmstad kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 23 September 2024 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in IFK Goteborg vs Halmstad?
IFK Goteborg 1 - 1 Halmstad.
Where is IFK Goteborg vs Halmstad being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is IFK Goteborg vs Halmstad part of?
IFK Goteborg vs Halmstad is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Goteborg vs Halmstad?
Our statistical model gives IFK Goteborg a 52% chance of winning, Halmstad a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making IFK Goteborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Goteborg vs Halmstad?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both IFK Goteborg and Halmstad will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Goteborg vs Halmstad have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and Halmstad?
Record (5 meetings): IFK Goteborg 1W | Draws 3 | Halmstad 1W.
What form are IFK Goteborg and Halmstad in?
IFK Goteborg (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-L-D. Halmstad (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates IFK Goteborg's attack at 0.75x the league average against Halmstad's defence at 1.44x — combine the two and it projects 1.69 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Halmstad's attack (0.82x) against IFK Goteborg's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Goteborg Win
52%
1.93
24%
4.14
24%
4.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
IFK Goteborg xG
Total xG
2.75
1.07
Halmstad xG
1.93
52%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
4.16
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
19%
5.39
Win to Nil
18%
5.62
4%
22.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 11.5 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.7 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Goteborg vs Halmstad?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are IFK Goteborg and Halmstad expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for IFK Goteborg and 1.07 for Halmstad, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Goteborg vs Halmstad?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
IFK Goteborg's recent record stands at 13W 17D 22L from 52 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for IFK Goteborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Halmstad, meanwhile, have gone 16W 9D 27L across 52 games — 1.10 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Halmstad is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.08 PPG for IFK Goteborg against 1.10 for Halmstad. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, IFK Goteborg have managed 7W 8D 11L from 26 games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Halmstad's away record stands at 6W 4D 16L across 26 trips, a 0.85 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
IFK Goteborg are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Halmstad are on 1.02 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Goteborg
Blended
Halmstad
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Goteborg and Halmstad in coming into this match?
IFK Goteborg have gone 13W 17D 22L in their last 52 games (1.08 PPG), while Halmstad have gone 16W 9D 27L in their last 52 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Goteborg at home or Halmstad away?
IFK Goteborg's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Goteborg at home: 1.12 PPG; Halmstad away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IFK Goteborg won 0-3 on 26 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IFK Goteborg have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Halmstad — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
IFK Goteborg
5
Draws
1
Halmstad
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and Halmstad?
From 9 meetings on record, IFK Goteborg have won 3, Halmstad have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did IFK Goteborg and Halmstad last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Halmstad 1-1 IFK Goteborg.
Who has won more matches between IFK Goteborg and Halmstad?
IFK Goteborg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
IFK Goteborg see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Halmstad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Goteborg 46%, Halmstad 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (IFK Goteborg) and 62% (Halmstad).
On the defensive side: IFK Goteborg have failed to score in 35% of games; Halmstad in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Goteborg home games / Halmstad away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Goteborg play Halmstad?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of IFK Goteborg's recent matches and 58% of Halmstad's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IFK Goteborg vs Halmstad usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of IFK Goteborg's recent games and 62% of Halmstad's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Goteborg and Halmstad tend to score early?
IFK Goteborg have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Halmstad in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IFK Goteborg and Halmstad share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 23, as IFK Goteborg and Halmstad drew 1-1 in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Goteborg 1.69 xG and Halmstad 1.07 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Goteborg attack 0.75 / defence 1.00 against Halmstad attack 0.82 / defence 1.44, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Goteborg 52% | Draw 24% | Halmstad 24%, with IFK Goteborg to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Goteborg 40%, Halmstad 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Halmstad's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IFK Goteborg 1.08 PPG, Halmstad 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Halmstad (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.15 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.