IFK Goteborg 1-1 Gais – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Gais at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IFK Goteborg vs Gais encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Gamla Ullevi plays host to IFK Goteborg versus Gais in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Monday 28 April 2025 at 18:10 UTC.
Form
IFK Goteborg (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, IFK Goteborg have posted 2W 5D 3L at Gamla Ullevi — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Gais's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Gais's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Gais are 0.60 PPG clear of IFK Goteborg in recent Allsvenskan fixtures (1.60 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: IFK Goteborg 1W, Gais 1W, 0D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Sep 2024, ended 2–0 with IFK Goteborg winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
IFK Goteborg — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Gais — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Goteborg 52% versus Gais 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Goteborg 38% | Gais 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Goteborg 1.08 xG and Gais 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Goteborg attack 0.964 / defence 1.107 | Gais attack 0.844 / defence 0.790. League average goals — home 1.422 / away 1.269. Gais's defence strength of 0.790 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 35 IFK Goteborg games / 35 Gais games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 33% | Draw 29% | Gais 38%. Fair-value odds: IFK Goteborg 3.03 | Draw 3.45 | Gais 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Gais as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gais if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.27 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: IFK Goteborg 60% | Gais 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Goteborg vs Gais | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Monday 28 Apr 2025, 18:10 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 33% | Draw 29% | Gais 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG IFK Goteborg 1.08 / Gais 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Goteborg attack 0.964 / def 1.107 | Gais attack 0.844 / def 0.790 | league avg home 1.422 / away 1.269 • Poisson stance: Gais (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
IFK Goteborg xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Gais xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Goteborg vs Gais kick off?
IFK Goteborg vs Gais kicked off at 18:10 on Monday 28 April 2025 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in IFK Goteborg vs Gais?
IFK Goteborg 1 - 1 Gais.
Where is IFK Goteborg vs Gais being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is IFK Goteborg vs Gais part of?
IFK Goteborg vs Gais is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Goteborg vs Gais?
Our statistical model gives IFK Goteborg a 33% chance of winning, Gais a 38% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Gais the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Goteborg vs Gais?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both IFK Goteborg and Gais will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Goteborg vs Gais have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and Gais?
Record (2 meetings): IFK Goteborg 1W | Draws 0 | Gais 1W.
What form are IFK Goteborg and Gais in?
IFK Goteborg (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Gais (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
IFK Goteborg's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Gais's defensive record (0.79x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. Flip it around — Gais's attack (0.84x) against IFK Goteborg's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 0-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gais Win
33%
3.02
29%
3.50
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
IFK Goteborg xG
Total xG
2.27
1.19
Gais xG
3.02
33%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
34%
2.95
Win to Nil
10%
9.88
13%
7.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 12.3 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.2 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Goteborg vs Gais?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are IFK Goteborg and Gais expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for IFK Goteborg and 1.19 for Gais, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Goteborg vs Gais?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
IFK Goteborg's recent record stands at 15W 20D 25L from 60 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-L in the last five.
Gais, meanwhile, have gone 31W 12D 17L across 60 games — 1.75 PPG, with L-D-D-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Gais by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over IFK Goteborg heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, IFK Goteborg have managed 8W 10D 12L from 30 games — 1.13 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Gais's away record stands at 13W 6D 11L across 30 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
IFK Goteborg are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Gais are on 1.62 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Defensively: Gais in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Goteborg
Current Season
Gais
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Goteborg and Gais in coming into this match?
IFK Goteborg have gone 15W 20D 25L in their last 60 games (1.08 PPG), while Gais have gone 31W 12D 17L in their last 60 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Goteborg at home or Gais away?
Gais's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Goteborg at home: 1.13 PPG; Gais away: 1.50 PPG.
Have IFK Goteborg or Gais been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Goteborg have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Gais in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IFK Goteborg have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Gais — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
IFK Goteborg
2
Draws
1
Gais
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and Gais?
From 5 meetings on record, IFK Goteborg have won 2, Gais have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IFK Goteborg and Gais last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when IFK Goteborg 2-2 Gais.
Who has won more matches between IFK Goteborg and Gais?
IFK Goteborg have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Gais are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Goteborg 50%, Gais 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (IFK Goteborg) and 57% (Gais).
On the defensive side: Gais in 33%; IFK Goteborg have failed to score in 30% of games; Gais in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Goteborg home games / Gais away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Goteborg play Gais?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of IFK Goteborg's recent matches and 47% of Gais's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IFK Goteborg vs Gais usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of IFK Goteborg's recent games and 57% of Gais's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Goteborg and Gais tend to score early?
IFK Goteborg have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Gais in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IFK Goteborg and Gais share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 6, as IFK Goteborg and Gais drew 1-1 in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Goteborg 1.08 xG and Gais 1.19 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Goteborg attack 0.96 / defence 1.11 against Gais attack 0.84 / defence 0.79, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Goteborg 33% | Draw 29% | Gais 38%, with Gais to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Goteborg 38%, Gais 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Gais's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Gais arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.