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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Djurgardens IF defy the odds to beat IFK Goteborg 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Djurgardens IF beat IFK Goteborg 1-2 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 8, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Goteborg 1.25 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.23 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Goteborg attack 0.99 / defence 1.10 against Djurgardens IF attack 0.86 / defence 0.93, drawn from 37/36 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it IFK Goteborg 37% | Draw 28% | Djurgardens IF 36%, with IFK Goteborg to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Djurgardens IF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Goteborg 38%, Djurgardens IF 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

IFK Goteborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Djurgardens IF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Djurgardens IF arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was vindicated by the result. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights