IFK Goteborg 1-4 Djurgardens IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IFK Goteborg at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this IFK Goteborg vs Djurgardens IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
IFK Goteborg and Djurgardens IF meet at Gamla Ullevi in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Monday 1 April 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
IFK Goteborg (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
IFK Goteborg at Gamla Ullevi this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Djurgardens IF have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Djurgardens IF have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: IFK Goteborg 2W, Djurgardens IF 2W, 1D.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2023, ended 2–1 with IFK Goteborg winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
IFK Goteborg half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Djurgardens IF half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Goteborg 48% versus Djurgardens IF 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Goteborg 45% | Djurgardens IF 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Goteborg 1.36 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Goteborg attack 0.982 / defence 0.939 | Djurgardens IF attack 0.947 / defence 0.968. League average goals — home 1.427 / away 1.516. Data: 30 IFK Goteborg games / 30 Djurgardens IF games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 37% | Draw 26% | Djurgardens IF 37%. Fair-value odds: IFK Goteborg 2.70 | Draw 3.85 | Djurgardens IF 2.70. The draw (26%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 26% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: IFK Goteborg 50% | Djurgardens IF 50%.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Goteborg vs Djurgardens IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Monday 1 Apr 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 37% | Draw 26% | Djurgardens IF 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG IFK Goteborg 1.36 / Djurgardens IF 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Goteborg attack 0.982 / def 0.939 | Djurgardens IF attack 0.947 / def 0.968 | league avg home 1.427 / away 1.516 • Poisson stance: Draw (26%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
IFK Goteborg xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Djurgardens IF xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Goteborg vs Djurgardens IF kick off?
IFK Goteborg vs Djurgardens IF kicked off at 13:00 on Monday 1 April 2024 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in IFK Goteborg vs Djurgardens IF?
IFK Goteborg 1 - 4 Djurgardens IF.
Where is IFK Goteborg vs Djurgardens IF being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is IFK Goteborg vs Djurgardens IF part of?
IFK Goteborg vs Djurgardens IF is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Goteborg vs Djurgardens IF?
Our statistical model gives IFK Goteborg a 37% chance of winning, Djurgardens IF a 37% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in IFK Goteborg vs Djurgardens IF?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both IFK Goteborg and Djurgardens IF will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Goteborg vs Djurgardens IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and Djurgardens IF?
Record (5 meetings): IFK Goteborg 2W | Draws 1 | Djurgardens IF 2W.
What form are IFK Goteborg and Djurgardens IF in?
IFK Goteborg (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. Djurgardens IF (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from IFK Goteborg's attack rating (0.98) and Djurgardens IF's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Djurgardens IF's attack (0.95x) against IFK Goteborg's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 0-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Goteborg Win
37%
2.68
26%
3.88
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
IFK Goteborg xG
Total xG
2.71
1.35
Djurgardens IF xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
26%
3.85
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
10%
10.33
10%
10.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 9.0 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.2 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.3 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Goteborg vs Djurgardens IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are IFK Goteborg and Djurgardens IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for IFK Goteborg and 1.35 for Djurgardens IF, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Goteborg vs Djurgardens IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
IFK Goteborg's recent record stands at 22W 13D 25L from 60 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-W in the last five.
Djurgardens IF, meanwhile, have gone 32W 11D 17L across 60 games — 1.78 PPG, with W-D-W-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Djurgardens IF by 0.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over IFK Goteborg heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, IFK Goteborg have managed 12W 7D 11L from 30 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Djurgardens IF's away record stands at 11W 8D 11L across 30 trips, a 1.37 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.78 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Djurgardens IF's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
IFK Goteborg are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Djurgardens IF are on 1.60 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Goteborg
Current Season
Djurgardens IF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Goteborg and Djurgardens IF in coming into this match?
IFK Goteborg have gone 22W 13D 25L in their last 60 games (1.32 PPG), while Djurgardens IF have gone 32W 11D 17L in their last 60 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Goteborg at home or Djurgardens IF away?
IFK Goteborg's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Goteborg at home: 1.43 PPG; Djurgardens IF away: 1.37 PPG.
Have IFK Goteborg or Djurgardens IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Goteborg have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Djurgardens IF in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 4 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Djurgardens IF won 6-0 on 4 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IFK Goteborg have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Djurgardens IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
IFK Goteborg
3
Draws
5
Djurgardens IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and Djurgardens IF?
From 10 meetings on record, IFK Goteborg have won 2, Djurgardens IF have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did IFK Goteborg and Djurgardens IF last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2026, when Djurgardens IF 6-0 IFK Goteborg.
Who has won more matches between IFK Goteborg and Djurgardens IF?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Djurgardens IF see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Goteborg 50%, Djurgardens IF 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (IFK Goteborg) and 40% (Djurgardens IF).
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF in 37%; Djurgardens IF in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Goteborg home games / Djurgardens IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Goteborg play Djurgardens IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of IFK Goteborg's recent matches and 43% of Djurgardens IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IFK Goteborg vs Djurgardens IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of IFK Goteborg's recent games and 40% of Djurgardens IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Goteborg and Djurgardens IF tend to score early?
IFK Goteborg have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Djurgardens IF in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Djurgardens IF run riot with a 1-4 hammering of IFK Goteborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Djurgardens IF beat IFK Goteborg 1-4 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 1, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Goteborg 1.36 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.35 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Djurgardens IF outscored their 1.35 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Goteborg attack 0.98 / defence 0.94 against Djurgardens IF attack 0.95 / defence 0.97, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Goteborg 37% | Draw 26% | Djurgardens IF 37%, with IFK Goteborg to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Djurgardens IF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Goteborg 45%, Djurgardens IF 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Djurgardens IF arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.32. That form edge translated into the three points. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.