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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant IFK Goteborg run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Degerfors IF.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

IFK Goteborg beat Degerfors IF 3-0 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 18, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Goteborg 2.12 xG and Degerfors IF 1.28 xG, a combined 3.41. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. IFK Goteborg beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Degerfors IF landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Goteborg attack 0.98 / defence 1.01 against Degerfors IF attack 0.96 / defence 1.49, drawn from 47/17 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it IFK Goteborg 56% | Draw 22% | Degerfors IF 22%, with IFK Goteborg to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Goteborg 45%, Degerfors IF 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

IFK Goteborg's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Degerfors IF's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — IFK Goteborg 1.19 PPG, Degerfors IF 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IFK Goteborg win broke the near-deadlock. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights