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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as BK Hacken defy the odds to beat IFK Goteborg 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

BK Hacken beat IFK Goteborg 2-3 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 4, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Goteborg 1.37 xG and BK Hacken 0.92 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. BK Hacken outscored their 0.92 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Goteborg attack 0.91 / defence 0.90 against BK Hacken attack 0.89 / defence 1.13, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it IFK Goteborg 47% | Draw 28% | BK Hacken 25%, with IFK Goteborg to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a BK Hacken win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Goteborg 38%, BK Hacken 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

IFK Goteborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

BK Hacken's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, BK Hacken arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.08. That form edge translated into the three points. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual. BK Hacken (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights